This was a good summary of where we are, and unfortunately timeline seems to be TBD:
@leedsgarcia
There is a lot of confusion about today's 5th Circuit decision on DACA and the political implications of it. Let me explain some more about my honest take of things 1/
There are multiple political things at play. The length of time Dems will be in the majority in both chambers in Congress. The length of time Biden will be President. The length of time DACA recipients can renew. The length of time Hanen will take to take down Biden's rule 2/
Length of time Dems in majority: this matters because if R's win House in Nov & SCOTUS rules while they have House control it's hard to get a deal done. 3/
Length of time Biden is President: this matters because if Court & Democratic can kicking pushes into election year incentives to not act get gross and/or if Republicans win the White House in 2024 deportation protections (if those remain post SCOTUS) could go out the
Length of time DACA recipients can renew: this matters because when DACA eventually is taken down by SCOTUS or the 5th (&/or SCOTUS doesn't even take it which could be a possibility too), the closer to 2 years folks are the longer they could be protected before extreme changes 5/
People are *over-interpreting* today's ruling on the pros of a longer renewal period because there will be a couple more months while Hanen takes down the Biden Rule & *under-interpreting* the consequences of the above two points and who holds the bag later. 6/
The length of time Hanen takes to rule next: this is the big unknown that could set the stage for the above. Does he set a briefing & ruling schedule before the Rule goes into effect (I assume not?)? Does DHS begin implementation? Does he keep a similar renewal stay? When? 7/
The point is. THERE IS LITERALLY NO REASON TO BE GUESSING IN THE CRYSTAL BALL OF THE LITIGATION & ELECTORAL FUTURE W/ DEMOCRATIC MAJORITIES. A choice to not do this in lame duck by Dems is a choice that they are okay with Dreamers losing protections. 8/
There is nothing good to wait for here. To policymakers: get in a room. get a deal. And get it done. This isn't easy but it only gets harder from here. 9/
https://twitter.com/leedsgarcia/stat...03470471499778