I really want to see the 5th version of the bill. Kagan coming out and talking about the DA, probably means she will vote for cloture now. Doubt she will vote for the actual bill though.

I am guess Reid needs to hold on to 53-56 democrats, then add 4-7 republicans. They already have 2 republicans. They will probably get 2 more from snowe and collins.

53 + 4 = 57.

I am guessing 3 republicans are needed, or Baucus/Testers/Conrad are convinced to vote on the bill if border security is tacked on and the bill is narrowed further. It all comes down to how the fifth version of the bill looks like.

This is just a quick estimate. We still need to keep calling and faxing the on the fence senators.