Approved on Tuesday! First Renewal.

Timeline:
Early July '17 - Sent in Renewal (really late, my fault)
Late September '17 EAD expired
Late October '17 - Called USCIS center for case inquiry
Early Jan '18 - Online form to Ombudsman. Card in production the following week!

I feel like a weight has been lifted off my shoulders (until 2020 when I have to figure this out again)
For any one who is waiting on a renewal, the Ombudsman may be a helpful route!