Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

No , they won’t go there . Slippery slope because they are not going to be in the majority forever.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

yep, jay is right..

imagine when the Democrats take control of the Congress next year. they can do it to them also.

same shit, different toilet.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

I doubt the Democrats can regain the Senate next year. 25 seats in play, most in States President Trump won single handedly.

The question is what will the Democrats be willing to shut down the government for? For the Democrats to pick DREAMERS and claim that they’re going to start blocking veterans’ benefits, strikes me as ludicrous. They may be talking about it now, but I find it hard to believe they would follow through. Let's hope I'm wrong though. A lot at stake here.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

I did my waiting, 13 years of it. I have every right to be anxious and want them to hurry the fuck up.

Voting participation is always down on the side of the party that holds the white house. That's why it flipped Dem during Bush and it flipped Russian during Obama. Really the problem here is the map, democrats hold 25/33 seats in class 2, which is what is up for vote next year. If we were voting on any other class it'd be a roll.

Also Trump's approval is in the toilet. I'm sure you noticed a sudden drop in red dunce caps. Predictions currently float between D+10 and D+15.

The following senate democratic seats are in states that Trump won:
MT, ND, WI, MI, OH, WV, IN, MO, FL, PA.

MT, ND, and WV are strange outliers. They are democratic senators that hang on with their own brand.
MI, WI, and PA are states that swung in this election only.
FL and OH are swing states.
MO and IN are the strangest ones where a democrat won in an otherwise red state.

As of right now, I think that MT, ND, WV, MI, PA, WI, FL, and OH will actually hold.
Biggest question really arises from MO and IN. McCaskill is a decently popular senator on her own, somehow how Susan Collins manages to hang on in an otherwise blue Maine.

Indiana is the major problem since Donnelly got into the office because he ran against an utter idiot that made inflammatory comments that made people in Indiana denounce him. He might hang on incumbent privilege alone but that's hard to gauge right now.

On the flip side we have NV and AZ.

Heller is basically done in Nevada. Trump lost there, the ACA repeal fiasco wasn't popular there either.

Arizona: Now here we reach something strange. Arizona has been inching bluer and bluer with every passing year. It's still decently red, flake is retiring and wasn't a popular senator, he ran the middle of the road and it ended up with both the left and far right wanting him gone. So he'd probably lose a primary anyways. So it will really boil down to how much of a democratic tilt who exactly runs for this seat.

Arizona (McCain's seat): This one is hypothetical but if McCain kicks the bucket (or resigns) prior to the midterm then this seat will also be up for grabs. McCain is fairly respected in Arizona but it's not like he has huge following due to him being a flip flopper.

The long shots (within range):
TN, TX, and NE.

There are really all depending on how heavy of a tilt there is towards democrats, how pissed off people are with Trump, and how much they dislike their current senator. TN is on the list because it has come close previously. TX because of Cruz and being a heavily non-white state. NE just because it did elect democrats not too long ago.

Hail Mary:
AL Special Election in 2017: This one is a big unusual since it is a special election. Will it flip, unlikely unless republicans sit this one out.


2020 might be a slaughter depending on Trump's popularity. If he keeps doing dumb thing this it is possible.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

we're almost their brother, legalization!

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

I don't see it happening either. Only one has committed to it.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

I can not believe some people put so much trust in democrats. Do you honestly think they would shutdown the government over some illegals that can not vote. They all had some press coverage and talked about doing the "right" thing.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

why do you think that DACA is the only issue that they will shutting down the govt under?

do you not know there are other issues at play like the CHIP and CSR payments to the ACA?

not everything is about us ya know.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

I agree completely.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

Democrats had an opportunity to do when they held majority but stayed away from it. It becomes dangerous for both sides to lose filibusters.

Re: Key Senate Democrats Unclear About Shutting Govt Over DACA
 

Pretty much, but as evidenced by republicans you can apparently Frankenstein bills together to make them revenue-neutral and just ram through with reconciliation, especially considering that amendments to strike out maybe be considered even if they are not revenue neutral. So you can add some cuts to make it revenue neutral, and then strike the cuts out.

So you make some bill lets say CIR (which would increase revenues), with tax cuts for lower/middle class (which would decrease revenues), and make sure that the money estimate adds up very close to zero and pass both items as a single package by simple majority.

Filibuster is de facto dead and I hope Schumer and Pelosi are taking notes here for 2020. Imagine coupling a yuge tax hikes for millionaires together with universal healthcare? Republicans would have a very hard time gutting that, it'd become like social security.