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-   -   Choice could buy time on immigration (http://dreamact.info/forum/showthread.php?t=11500)

Ianus 05-26-2009 09:03 PM
Choice could buy time on immigration
 
The Hill has released another article,but this time with toned down expectations surrounding general legislation for immigration.
Quote:
President Obama’s decision to nominate federal appeals court Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court may help him delay a thornier challenge: what to do with millions of illegal immigrants living in the United States.

The nomination of the first Hispanic justice drew praise Tuesday from the Latino community at a time when many are growing anxious over inaction on broad legislation that would put illegal immigrants — most from neighboring Mexico — on a path to citizenship. Hispanic lawmakers have been pressing Obama to deliver for a key demographic that helped put him in office, with immigration reform the top priority.

The White House has yet to commit fully to taking up broad immigration policy changes this year, with Obama instead pushing forward in tough fights over healthcare, climate change and closing the military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

Former President George W. Bush twice failed to enact “comprehensive immigration reform” and Obama has kept a relatively low profile on the topic. While many advocates say the two are not directly related, some admit Obama has bought himself a little time with the nomination.

“The Latino community — and not just Latinos, but anyone who’s had a set of life experiences like Sotomayor — will always remember Barack Obama for this,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus and the only Hispanic in House leadership. “This will inspire people who were hungry to see a reform of our broken immigration system to stand behind the president on this issue and behind the decisions he makes.”

Senate Democrats and allied interest groups say they’re committed to legislation by the end of Obama’s first year in office. But the stark realities of the calendar, the harsh politics of the issue and unemployment figures nearing double digits are fully within view.

Even some of the movement’s biggest advocates are lowering expectations, saying much depends on Obama’s desire to enact sweeping healthcare changes and the president’s own popularity in the months ahead.

Obama is set to hold a high-profile meeting on immigration with key lawmakers June 8, but the congressional calendar is already bogged down with complicated legislation.

Any effort on immigration must overcome the politics that shreds party unity on the issue and the grassroots opposition from talk radio and cable television that helped kill Bush’s attempts.

“I’m not sure I would even expect anything to pass in this Congress, much less this year,” said James Gimpel, a professor at the University of Maryland and expert on immigration politics. “I think it’s a lot to expect.”

On the campaign trail, Obama spoke sparingly about reforming the country’s immigration laws. Still, he won widespread support among the Latino electorate, with 67 percent of the vote. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won only 31 percent, despite co-sponsoring legislation with Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) that came to symbolize the push for legalization.

Obama’s favorability rating among Latinos continues to climb. A little more than a year ago, Obama had ratings in the mid-60 percent range; a recent poll by Matt Barreto, professor at the University of Washington, put that figure at 81 percent.

But an immigration debate in 2009, which would further affect Obama’s ratings, would come during a recession. Unemployment numbers — already near 9 percent — are likely to exceed 10 percent by next year.

“There is just no way it’s going to happen this year. It’s just fantasy,” said Mark Krikorian, of the Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative think tank that opposes legalization of illegal immigrants.

The recession has lawmakers consumed with other issues. Even among Democrats, only 34 percent in January said immigration reform was a top concern, down 14 percent from two years ago, according to a study by the Pew Research Center.

Still, most members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) express optimism that a debate is possible this year.

“One thing has nothing to do with the other,” said Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), leader of the CHC, referring to Sotomayor’s nomination and immigration legislation. “But I think both are making significant progress, even though they are moving on two distinct tracks.”

Frank Sharry, head of America’s Voice, a group lobbying for comprehensive immigration reform, said he and other advocates see a window for legislation between September and March of next year, and they hope legislation can pass early next year. They’re buoyed by hearings that Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) called recently to start the debate.

Sharry sees at least three factors that will play a role in whether the White House pushes for immigration reform: progress on healthcare reform, the general state of the economy and Obama’s favorability ratings.

“I don’t think we’re going to get a lot of the president’s political capital or attention until the healthcare debate is resolved,” Sharry said, noting just one of the factors.

A lobbyist for the AFL-CIO, which opposed proposals under President Bush that called for a guest-worker program, also tempered expectations.

“I think we’re optimistic that we can get in this first year at least a solid proposal,” said Sonia Ramirez. “Whether we’ll get enactment of a piece of legislation — that’s a pretty hefty goal. I’m not sure we can get there yet.”
I definitely agree with Sharry on the italicized points.

CIR_DREAM2009 05-26-2009 09:31 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Hmmm, is this the new CW?

Quote:
Frank Sharry, head of America’s Voice, a group lobbying for comprehensive immigration reform, said he and other advocates see a window for legislation between September and March of next year, and they hope legislation can pass early next year. They’re buoyed by hearings that Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) called recently to start the debate.
Expect immigration reform in the fall or early 2010? With the schedule, the first session of the 111th Congress ends early October, which would be the fall session, and then they're on break the rest of the year. The second session starts January 2010.

And where does that leave Dream? The Dream Act is attached to CIR according to Durbin and that other Senators like Specter prefer to vote on immigration matters in a comprehensive bill. The Hill did say Dream could be a sleeper this year, but with CIR and Dream so close to one another, will they really offer Dream as a stand alone if CIR is bumped to early 2010?

Also, with the energy/cap and trade bill set for passage in the House in the summer/July, the Senate could take up energy in the fall, but the Senate hasn't yet started work or negotiations on cap and trade. I guess we'll just have to see what Obama's priorities are for this fall and what he says during the immigration event.

CIR_DREAM2009 05-26-2009 09:44 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
More on the schedule:

With the summer schedule already booked, that leaves the fall session to be the last remaining time for movement on either CIR/DA or DA stand alone. There's a five week work session starting after Labor Day in September and ending early October. The 5 week fall session remains the last weeks in the Senate agenda not booked for 2009.

The second session of the 111th Congress starts January 2010.

angeleno 05-26-2009 09:55 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
“There is just no way it’s going to happen this year. It’s just fantasy,” said Mark Krikorian, of the Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative think tank that opposes legalization of illegal immigrants.
Why do they keep quoting neo-nazis?

Do they not check the background of these clowns at all?

CIR_DREAM2009 05-26-2009 09:57 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Oops, forgot to add something. There is another way for Dream to pass apart from CIR/DA or DA stand alone and that is through attachment to another bill. Senate protocol requests that germane-ness is not required (which is how we got the gun in national parks bill in the credit card reform bill) for bill attachments except for budget bills.

Dream attachment to a relevant appropriations bill is an avenue Dream can take, but again, there is the question of whether Senators want to split immigration matters away from CIR.

TRATS20050 05-26-2009 09:59 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CIR_DREAM2009 (Post 131195)
Hmmm, is this the new CW?



Expect immigration reform in the fall or early 2010? With the schedule, the first session of the 111th Congress ends early October, which would be the fall session, and then they're on break the rest of the year. The second session starts January 2010.

And where does that leave Dream? The Dream Act is attached to CIR according to Durbin and that other Senators like Specter prefer to vote on immigration matters in a comprehensive bill. The Hill did say Dream could be a sleeper this year, but with CIR and Dream so close to one another, will they really offer Dream as a stand alone if CIR is bumped to early 2010?

Also, with the energy/cap and trade bill set for passage in the House in the summer/July, the Senate could take up energy in the fall, but the Senate hasn't yet started work or negotiations on cap and trade. I guess we'll just have to see what Obama's priorities are for this fall and what he says during the immigration event.
When does the immigration event happen ?

CIR_DREAM2009 05-26-2009 10:04 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
^ June 8th.

Quote:
Obama is set to hold a high-profile meeting on immigration with key lawmakers June 8, but the congressional calendar is already bogged down with complicated legislation.

Alex 05-26-2009 10:20 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
next year can't wait for some of us... they say next year this next year that; meanwhile deportations still continue nonstop. nothing is going to happen this year. either they go for Dream Act alone, or they play political football until every American has a job.

personally, this up and down, good and bad news; is depressing... tired

Bruinman 05-26-2009 10:34 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex (Post 131204)
next year can't wait for some of us... they say next year this next year that; meanwhile deportations still continue nonstop. nothing is going to happen this year. either they go for Dream Act alone, or they play political football until every American has a job.

personally, this up and down, good and bad news; is depressing... tired
this has happened every year for the past ten years. nothing new. like i said, you gotta take these article with grain of salt. but seeing as how things are going, CIR aint happening anytime soon.

Alex 05-26-2009 10:46 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
everyone is stuck behind CIR's ass... go with DA alone first to test the political climate... or freeze deportations and raids for non-criminal individuals... Obama wants to fix the broken system and offer hope; at the same time he continues with the same policies.

and whats with this whole Sotomayor being chosen to please the Latinos?... shes Puerto Rican... i didn't know there's many undocumented Puerto Ricans here. if Sotomayor was a Mexican, then ok i'll buy into it being tied with the immigrant community. just because someone is Latino doesn't mean they chose Obama for the same reason other Latinos chose him.

shes a judge for God's sake, she'll side with the law.

lilbawler2001 05-26-2009 11:00 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
I thought the exact same thing when i heard that he picked a latina for the supreme court.

Mona Lisa 05-26-2009 11:00 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
time time time... bunch of crap

JGuevara1986 05-26-2009 11:04 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Fucking piece of shit!!!!!:evil:

Bruinman 05-26-2009 11:14 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by alex1234 (Post 131207)
You're an idiot, go back to alipac and also lose some weight.


FATTY
lol. look at your mug.

CIR_DREAM2009 05-26-2009 11:31 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
The House will work longer than the Senate and will adjourn October 30th.

Everyone remember that this Hill article and the other Hill article were written by different journalists and shouldn't be seen as updates of one another. Both articles hold a lot of speculation, which is all we have at this point, but both articles do say the calendar is the main problem. They were just written differently such as:

quote from negative Hill article:

Quote:
Senate Democrats and allied interest groups say they’re committed to legislation by the end of Obama’s first year in office. But the stark realities of the calendar, the harsh politics of the issue and unemployment figures nearing double digits are fully within view.
quote from positive Hill article:

Quote:
The only sticking point appears to be timing and logistics — Democratic leaders are unsure if a comprehensive bill can be drafted before the end of the year. Schumer’s subcommittee will insist on input, as well as possibly other committees, and the looming fight over health care reform may push the issue into 2010.
We should wait and see on June 8th what Obama says about the issue.

Alex 05-26-2009 11:34 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
CIR_DREAM2009 your soo cute. you always try and make us feel better :)
your very optimistic; witch is good. I am too, i just happen to know that the higher you are, the harder you fall... nun of us here want to have a super hope and then get hurt; yet again

Mona Lisa 05-26-2009 11:39 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
I just hate reading all these articles. I am hoping for things to get better like everyone else but then reading these sends me in the other direction. I just get mad because I like things to be clear. Some dreamers are ok with the idea of waiting till next year because they are only thinking about themselves. This is an issue that needs to be addressed asap

703mister 05-26-2009 11:59 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
"something that we can do IMMEDIATELY that i think is very important is to pass the dream act which allows children who no fault of their own our here but have essentially grown up as americans, allow them the opportunity for higher education. I do not want to classes of citizens in this country, i want everyone to prosper thats going to be a top priority."


The famous and most encouraging words of Obama on our cause (Iam sure everyones already seen the video)..... i am really looking forward to that immediate part. HOPE OUR DREAM COMES TRUE soon cause its getting harder and harder to breathe.

CIR_DREAM2009 05-27-2009 12:00 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex (Post 131221)
CIR_DREAM2009 your soo cute. you always try and make us feel better :)
your very optimistic; witch is good. I am too, i just happen to know that the higher you are, the harder you fall... nun of us here want to have a super hope and then get hurt; yet again
I'm just putting the articles in context, Alex, but I guess I'm a natural optimist. We're just so close, people shouldn't give up hope because rest assured, immigration reform and/or Dream Act will be discussed in the 111th Congress; it's just a matter of when.

Also, Sen. Durbin does feel a sense of urgency on the Dream Act:

Quote:
Durbin said he is “impatient” to pass the bill and that Democratic Conference Vice Chairman Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has agreed to hold hearings on the bill. Schumer chairs the Immigration, Refugees and Border Security Subcommittee of the Judiciary Committee.

“I've got so many young people who are counting on me for the eight years I've been working on this, and I feel morally bound to do my best to get this done as quickly as possible," Durbin said.
What will Sen. Durbin do about the Dream Act if it looks like CIR will be bumped to early 2010? Then again, both articles do say that officials insist that they want immigration reform this year. The immigration event on June 8th will hold more answers and questions for us.

questionsihave 05-27-2009 12:05 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
There was a previous article about courting the Hispanic with a SCOTUS and/or immigration reform, so this news isn't really new. This pick definitely has taken away some of the pressure for passing CIR this year. Honestly, Sotomayor was totally a political choice. I had Diane Wood as my #1, with Sotomayor as #2, but that is another issue.

I think we will need to see how this plays out. There is good news though. There will be a hearing on the dream act done by the judiciary committee soon. This shows that the bill is moving along. The question is what will happen on June 8, 2009? That meeting will play a big part in whether CIR will be done this year.

Another question is what will CIR advocates do? If it is seen as if there isn't any calendar time for the year, will they try to extend the debate to next year, or will they tamp down their expectations? This is sadly what controls the DA's fate. If they move on it, then the DA could move into next year. If they think it isn't viable, then a smaller package would probably be attempted. The wild card is Sen. Durbin. How long will he wait for CIR to come up?

Honestly, I still don't get the whole comprehensive obsession. It is really that hard to pass immigration in smaller parts? Redoing the whole system is great, but way to political. I don't think CIR is doable this year. Maybe it next spring. I think a smaller comprehensive package can be done if a few weeks, but who care about my opinion.

angeleno 05-27-2009 12:42 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by questionsihave (Post 131232)
I had Diane Wood as my #1, with Sotomayor as #2, but that is another issue.
.
Wood was as liberal, and eloquent, as they get. Let's hope she's next.

Ianus 05-27-2009 01:01 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Here is what Frank Sharry had to say about Obama's nomination choice & what it has to do with immigration.
Quote:
Those who think Sotomayor’s nomination means no on comprehensive immigration reform (for those new to this whole world, “amnesty” is what Tanton’s clan call any plan to fix our immigration mess) should consider these four points:

* 1. Hispanic voters care about immigration reform. A whole lot.

* 2. So do swing voters. (In fact, the general public’s support for reform is at an all-time high, despite the economy).

* 3. Obama has renewed his campaign pledge to move reform forward in year 1. Again, and again, and again.

* 4. Two words: June 8th.

On point #1: the 2008 election produced a mandate for real immigration reform by Hispanic voters, who helped flip 4 states from red to blue and whose influence and clout are growing fast. New polling shows that roughly 72 percent of Latinos think that President Obama will keep his campaign promise and move a comprehensive immigration reform bill forward before the end of his first year in office. To simplify: Democrats in Congress, it's time to lean into this issue and get it done. Republicans, change course and help get this issue solved if you want to stop bleeding Latino voters.

On point #2: swing voters see inaction on the immigration issue as a major failure of Washington to solve tough problems. They don’t think deporting 12 million people is the right way to go, but they also think doing nothing is no longer an option (to them, therein lies the real amnesty— letting unscrupulous employers who undercut American workers and taxpayers off scot-free, while doing nothing to reform the broken system). They overwhelmingly want to see comprehensive solutions enacted, and soon.

On point #3, well, enough said.

And finally, on point #4, we all know that actions speak louder than words. In “Obama sets WH immigration reform meeting for June 8,” the Politico reports:

President Barack Obama is inviting members of Congress to the White House for a June 8 meeting to highlight immigration reform, an administration official confirmed to Politico Wednesday.


"The meeting will be an opportunity to launch a policy conversation that we hope will be able to start a debate that will take place in Congress later in the year," the official, who asked not to be named, said.

In the lead up to the White House kick-off meeting on June 8th, we're sure to see plenty more speculation about whether or not the Administration intends to take up reform. Even after Obama makes it clear, from the White House, that reform is part of his agenda for this year, I'm guessing most of the commentariat will continue to predict he won't do it, that his plate is too full, that it's too controversial, and on, and on, and on.

What they don't get is what President Obama understands: the American people voted for a change from business as usual in Washington. They hunger for leaders who address multiple challenges at the same time, who tackle— instead of cowering before— the controversial issues of our day.

CIR_DREAM2009 05-27-2009 07:53 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CIR_DREAM2009 (Post 131198)
More on the schedule:

With the summer schedule already booked, that leaves the fall session to be the last remaining time for movement on either CIR/DA or DA stand alone. There's a five week work session starting after Labor Day in September and ending early October. The 5 week fall session remains the last weeks in the Senate agenda not booked for 2009.

The second session of the 111th Congress starts January 2010.
I'll have to do a retraction on this statement because I made it sound like the schedule is intractable and permanent when it is only tentative and subject to change. Digging around on the schedule, it turns out, target adjournment dates are NOT set in stone.

As you can see here, the target adjournment date for 2007, the first session of the 110th, was Nov. 16th, but in actuality, the last vote held in the first session of the 110th was Dec. 18th. The second session of the 110th didn't have a target adjournment date but the last vote was held Dec. 9th. Here's the dates in session in 2007 and 2008 with the days in session in red where the Senate worked until December.

In the 109th Congress, their tentative schedule for the 2nd session with a target adjournment of October 6th (the last of the tentative schedules I found) differs from the actual days in session.

In short, forget everything I said in the quoted box and know that the target adjournment date for the 111th is to be determined. The fall session looks to be longer than five weeks especially if there is outstanding work to be done, and they could conceivably work more weeks in October, November, and December. I apologize for the error.

K-Man 05-27-2009 08:04 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Lame duck! Lame duck! Lame duck!



:D

lilbawler2001 05-27-2009 09:10 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
It is not up to Obama to decide if the debate moves forward this year or not. Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid have both made it very clear that they intend to pass an immigration bill this year. Obama has no choice but to drum up support for the bill when it comes up this year like the senate leaders have indicated.

Bruinman 05-27-2009 11:24 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
i sure hope this thing happens before obama's ratings go down.

dado123 05-27-2009 02:12 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Appointing Sotomayor is not related to CIR he still has to keep promise, let's wait and see what Obama's plans are on June 8th.

angeleno 05-27-2009 02:58 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruinman (Post 131302)
i sure hope this thing happens before obama's ratings go down.
Just out of curiosity. Let's say hypothetically you were already a citizen. Would you vote Republican?

Bruinman 05-27-2009 03:16 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by angeleno (Post 131321)
Just out of curiosity. Let's say hypothetically you were already a citizen. Would you vote Republican?
depends on the issue. i like to think for myself and arrive at a logical conclusion instead of following mob mentality.

angeleno 05-27-2009 03:24 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Just what I thought. Thanks.

Bruinman 05-27-2009 03:32 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dado123 (Post 131316)
Appointing Sotomayor is not related to CIR he still has to keep promise, let's wait and see what Obama's plans are on June 8th.
i think sotomayor is very much related to CIR. i do see the point that obama might be trying to buy time with this nomination and punt the issue of CIR to later time. meanwhile, im very interested to see what comes out of this june 8th gathering amidst all this. my guess is "we need to push immigration reform, just not now". i hope durbin goes to that meeting and hammers down DREAM on their faces.

dado123 05-27-2009 09:48 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruinman (Post 131330)
i think sotomayor is very much related to CIR. i do see the point that obama might be trying to buy time with this nomination and punt the issue of CIR to later time. meanwhile, im very interested to see what comes out of this june 8th gathering amidst all this. my guess is "we need to push immigration reform, just not now". i hope durbin goes to that meeting and hammers down DREAM on their faces.
CIR needs to be addressed this year, midterm elections are coming up in 2010, right? I see them framing the argument that legalization will boost the economy? Whether this will sell to the general public, will have to wait and see. However, we Schummer and Reid are on board committed to getting done this year.

freshh. 05-28-2009 07:22 AM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilbawler2001 (Post 131297)
It is not up to Obama to decide if the debate moves forward this year or not. Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid have both made it very clear that they intend to pass an immigration bill this year. Obama has no choice but to drum up support for the bill when it comes up this year like the senate leaders have indicated.

That's precisely why I try not to let this articles that say otherwise get me down. I'm tired of waiting to see what will happen, but what else can we do?

All that's left is to do as much as we can to help DREAM and pray that something gets done ASAP.

elmichoacano 05-28-2009 12:32 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dado123 (Post 131366)
CIR needs to be addressed this year, midterm elections are coming up in 2010, right? I see them framing the argument that legalization will boost the economy? Whether this will sell to the general public, will have to wait and see. However, we Schummer and Reid are on board committed to getting done this year.
Yes midterm elections are coming up in 2010 and the right wing talk shows are already starting up their motors to mobilize their listeners to flood their representatives with calls, faxes, letters and emails like in 06 and 07.

free2be 05-28-2009 08:49 PM
Re: Choice could buy time on immigration
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruinman (Post 131330)
i think sotomayor is very much related to CIR. i do see the point that obama might be trying to buy time with this nomination and punt the issue of CIR to later time. meanwhile, im very interested to see what comes out of this june 8th gathering amidst all this. my guess is "we need to push immigration reform, just not now". i hope durbin goes to that meeting and hammers down DREAM on their faces.
I'm still unsure what Sotomayor's nomination has to do with CIR; could you elaborate?


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