Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

Comprehensive Immigration Reform. Given the 2010 election results, there seems to be little chance of passing CIR this year although piecemeal reforms are still possible. The most likely legislation to pass is the DREAM Act since it is strongly supported by President Obama. Although it failed to get enough votes in December to block a threatened Republican filibuster, expect President Obama to put pressure on those few conservative Democrats and enough moderate Republicans to force another vote. However, CIR may not pass until Latinos finally learn how to flex their political muscles courtesy of the 2010 census, especially in states like Texas with significant Hispanic populations.

Illegal Immigration. Expect the 2011 numbers continue to drop from a combination of fewer American jobs, improved border enforcement, workplace enforcement, and stepped up criminal deportations.

More Arizona Style Anti-Immigrant Laws. Look for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule against Arizona’s “show-me-your-papers” law (SB 1070). The primary issue is whether immigration enforcement is a federal responsibility. Unfortunately, this will not stop Republican majorities in deep red states from trying to pass similar legislation designed to limit access to college and other benefits by the undocumented.

Drivers Licenses for Illegal Immigrants. Here in New Mexico, expect Governor Susana Martinez to follow up with her election promise to revoke driver’s licenses to illegal aliens. This will leave our streets unsafe and contribute to more needless deaths and injuries from unqualified drivers. Expect clearer-headed legislators in Santa Fe from both parties to reject this idea. After all, what logic is there in successfully dropping the highway death rate from drunk driving, but then purposely put more untrained drivers on our freeways?

Birthright Citizenship. Expect Republicans at the national level to propose an end to birthright citizenship. This will satisfy nativists on the far right, but not get nearly enough votes to pass.

Immigrant Detention Reforms. Expect President Obama’s executive actions terminating abuses of incarcerated immigrants to begin to lower rate of needless suffering and death while in custody on civil violations (like visa overstays).

Anti-Immigrant Racism. Expect the economy to improve, albeit too slowly to halt more spontaneous acts of ignorance like the brouhaha over the so-called “ground-zero mosque”. Look for right wing kooks and Fox News regulars to continue to promote populist anti-Hispanic and anti-Muslim rhetoric in exchange for higher ratings from gullible viewers worried about their jobs (or lack of them).

Border Security. Expect the Obama administration to continue deporting more criminal aliens. Look to Arizona Sheriff Joe Arapaio to continue his misguided focus against illegal immigrant families for all the wrong reasons.

Green Card Lottery Program Reform. The U.S. government has, in the last few years, implemented an electronic-only registration process, added improved checks for duplicate entries, cut the open registration period from 60 to 30 days, and eliminated postal mail for notifying winners (a source of local postal mail fraud). Look for more positive changes designed to get more qualified diversity visa applicants beyond the high school graduate requirement.

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

What about countries that are not included anymore in the lottery program?

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

Bah... seems like 2011 is going to be like a year where the car is in the "park position", it doesn't move or advance forward. Eddy, remember that we still have a Democratic controlled Senate with a Democratic President. Even though the House is Republican, I don't think the Republicans would have enough of a majority to over-ride vetoes that the President may make on Republican proposals about immigration. I think we should be fine and immigration reform won't take too much of a step backwards.

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

More Arizona Style Anti-Immigrant Laws. Look for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule against Arizona’s “show-me-your-papers” law (SB 1070). The primary issue is whether immigration enforcement is a federal responsibility. Unfortunately, this will not stop Republican majorities in deep red states from trying to pass similar legislation designed to limit access to college and other benefits by the undocumented.

So far the courts have thrown out 6 of the 8 law sueds against SB 1070 and have also thrown parts of the two remaining. States rights are what they are in other words you can make being in the country illegally a Felony offense first time meaning automatic deportation. This is the toughest fight of any other happening right now along with the Arizona senator Pearce who has never lost one case yet on immigration and put up a birth right citizenship bill last week that does not affect the 14 amendment. Again if you want immigration reform and Dream Act policies you should want no more birth right citizenship because this is what scares the voters. Predicament for 2011 is court battles this is where it should be fought in the first place. Court battles need no politicians or president or anything put the request up against the constitution and see if it wins if so there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. If it does not not hold up all of it or parts of it then it will be shot down all this political nonsense is playing people for votes and not getting any real solutions.

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

I think Dream Act will pass in 2011.

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

facts=news
speculation=opinion=assholes

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

Hopefully, with an age cap of 25.

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

hopefully 26

Re: Immigration Predictions for 2011
 

maybe