Nate Silver to Joe Scarborough: Wanna Bet?
 

http://news.yahoo.com/nate-silver-jo...113615600.html

Political polling guru Nate Silver is so confident in his statistical models that he just offered to bet MSNBC's Joe Scarborough $1,000 that Barack Obama will win re-election. Scarborough, you may recall, criticized Silver's math earlier this week, saying that "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes." He was specifically talking about Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, which shows Mitt Romney with just a 1-in-4 chance of becoming president.

Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits for not understanding how odds and probability work and aggressively defending his method against critics. As the week has progressed, his model has only shown Obama's chances of winning increasing, which has not coincidentally increased Silver's confidence in the outcome. (As of this morning, Five Thirty Eight gives Obama a 79 percent chance of winning, with a final Electoral College total over 300.)

The back-and-forth swipes all came to head today with this tweet, with Silver offering a friendly $1,000 wager on Tuesday's result, with the winnings going to charity.

".@joenbc: If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?
— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) November 1, 2012"

Re: Nate Silver to Joe Scarborough: Wanna Bet?
 

First rule of betting, never bet against a mathematician/statistician.

I'm half-tempted to do the same with my friends on Facebook to put down $100 for Obama as well.

Re: Nate Silver to Joe Scarborough: Wanna Bet?
 

Well Nate Silver has certainly calmed my nerves about next Tuesday. This should be straight forward business for Obama.