Hello. Today's mood can best be described in this tweet:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burgess Everett (Politico Congressional reporter)
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Yes, the biggest, and pretty much the only, development today has been the "shutdown watch."
Let's start on the House side, where the Freedom Caucus threatened to derail any talk of a four-week continuing resolution.
But this happened:
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Originally Posted by Sahill Kapur (Bloomberg national political reporter)
What the Freedom Caucus got in exchange for supporting the CR (per HFC source):
1. Assurances the House will vote on a Pentagon funding bill that busts the military $ caps. (*Editor's note: Others report this will be in the range of at least $80 billion.*)
2. Assurances the House will work on and vote on a “conservative immigration bill” to send the Senate. (*Editor's note: Others report the caucus wants the vote on Goodlatte bill by end of February IF the bill can get 218 Republican votes*)
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/statu...42241001496576
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The House eventually passed the CR 230-197, with six Democrat YES and 11 Republican NO.
Then, on the Senate, the math has been much murkier. The Hill has the number of NO votes at 43 (with Flake (R-AZ) also saying he's inclined to vote NO, that number will likely go up to 44):
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-actio...ks-to-be-tight
Sen. McConnell (R-KY) decided to punt the Senate vote to Friday in a strategy to pressure the red state Democrats, but with several Republicans also saying they will vote against the CR, whether McConnell's strategy will succeed is in doubt.
Furthermore, McConnell and Cornyn refused to consider a short-term (Meaning < a week) CR (
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/stat...82740940939264) that has been floated by Sen. Schumer (D-NY) and others.
Some GOP senators are considering a last-ditch effort to avoid the shutdown by attaching DACA as a bipartisan amendment (
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/954138719396728833), although that's unlikely to go anywhere either.
So, GOP is already preparing for the possible shutdown, as McConnell is trying to put the blame on Democrats:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Politico
McConnell is likely to repeatedly call up the funding bill and make Democrats vote it down, provided the House passes its bill on Thursday. A spokeswoman for McConnell confirmed the Senate will stay in session in the event of the shutdown.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...connell-345662
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Costa (WaPo national politics reporter):
The dynamic that keeps coming up in phone calls: Sen. Graham is eager to negotiate over the weekend and try to figure out something on DACA, keep all options open. Leadership in House and Senate want to move on their plan + keep focus on Ds, not DACA.
https://twitter.com/costareports/sta...87581976879104
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We wait for tomorrow (Senate has until 1 AM ET on Saturday morning to pass a CR to avoid the shutdown). Let's look at other legislative activities and negotiations.
Here's a good article on where things stand in regards to the "Group of No. 2"s and why House Majority Leader McCarthy (R-CA) may be inclined to make a deal (
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politi...he-daca-debate).
But this is clear. Deals are not likely to be made tomorrow, or even next week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roll Call
Because of the challenges, GOP lawmakers and aides have suggested a deal is weeks away. Democrats, mostly because of their own sense of urgency rather than a sense of significant progress, say they remain hopeful a deal will come together this week.
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The challenge of getting to an agreement that can be agreed by hard-right senators like Cotton (R-AK) and liberal senators like Harris (D-CA) is herculean, perhaps why Schumer wants to cut Cotton out of the negotiations entirely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Politico
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told President Donald Trump this week that there will be no deal on Dreamers if hard-line conservative GOP Sen. Tom Cotton is involved, according to several congressional sources.
...
Schumer added (on the Senate floor), "There is no deal that Sen. Cotton or Rep. Goodlatte could forge that could earn the majority of either the House or the Senate... If Sen. Cotton and Rep. Goodlatte have veto power over an agreement, everyone knows there won't be an agreement."
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...meeting-346280
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And POTUS and the WH haven't helped either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jake Tapper
.@kaitlancollins reports: President Trump was fuming after chief of staff John Kelly said in an interview on Fox News that the president’s views on the wall and immigration had “evolved” since he took office. Trump “hated” Kelly’s comments, a source tells her.
https://twitter.com/jaketapper/statu...90788115025921
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabby Morrongiello (Washington Examiner WH correspondent)
One member said there are things w/ bipartisan support (DACA & border sec) but noted cont'd disagreement over visa lottery & chain migration.
"What was surprising is he said, 'Well, we should just take out those things that we can't agree on & pass those things that we can"
https://twitter.com/gabriellahope_/s...64382392225793
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Even as businesses and even Trump-supporting religious leaders push Congress and the WH to act (
https://twitter.com/nprpolitics/stat...07639347945472), this emoji can be the only one that can describe where the WH will be tomorrow: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Lastly, we go very quickly to the judiciary, where the Department of Justice has officially filed a request to SCOTUS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Geidner (Buzzfeed News legal editor)
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Here's a conservative analysis on the matter from a law professor at South Texas College of Law Houston:
https://twitter.com/JoshMBlackman/st...61075821404160
While Blackman suspects SCOTUS will make a ruling by June, no one knows if Justice Kennedy or Roberts will like the fact that the DOJ has skipped over the 9th Circuit. If that's the case, then don't be surprised if this case drags on to the end of the year. Still, it's unlikely that this injunction stands.
So, that should just about do it for today. Tomorrow, all eyes will be on the Senate floor for the shutdown watch, so expect this round-up to be fairly short tomorrow. But it will be an important day, obviously, and I'll be there to recap it all tomorrow night. May God smile in our favor.
P.S. Trump will be in Mar-a-Lago tomorrow hours before the shutdown:
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...81027995570177
P.S. 2. Here's an update on the Pete/Aguilar (aka. USA Act) bill:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahoo News
According to a senior Trump administration official, over the past two days, the White House has spoken with the coauthors of the bipartisan bill, Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, and Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif. The official told Yahoo News that those conversations should be seen as “an indication” the Trump administration has interest in the bill. The official described the situation as “fluid” but noted the legislation was “a position that some have encouraged us to look at.”
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https://cricket.yahoo.com/news/house...002857166.html