I haven't had chance to check the forum the past ten days or so, since I've been enjoying time with my family for the holidays; but the following two articles do illustrate, what I've now come to believe are the real chances of immigration reform being accomplished next year. The first is obviously an opinion piece; the second is sourced from "The Hill" D.C. newspaper to validate some of the points of the first piece.

We have to continue to write and make noise regardless of what we are promised, as this past year has made it clear that we now receive a promise every 3-months, quarter or so from the Obama administration and Democratic legislators, in order to quiet aggressive advocacy and accountability for immigration reform.


Opinion: Ruben Navarrette Jr.: Pelosi's immigration reform tactics tacky
By Ruben Navarrette Jr.


San Diego Union-Tribune

Posted: 12/23/2009 03:52:48 PM PST
Updated: 12/23/2009 06:36:26 PM PST


SAN DIEGO — Just in time for Christmas, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has given Latino voters a valuable gift: clarity.

So much of politics is masked in smoke and mirrors. If you convince Latino constituents that the other party is out to get them, you'll become their BAF — best amigo forever. And so it is that most Latinos I know have been led to believe that on immigration reform, Republicans are inherently bad and Democrats are intrinsically good. And, they tell me, any day now, President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats will discover their backbones and deliver what they've promised when pandering to Hispanic groups: comprehensive immigration reform that allows illegal immigrants to work their way to legal status, even if it means jumping through more hoops than Ringling Bros.

How gullible can you get? Democrats only care about one thing, and it's the same thing that Republicans care about: re-election. And any controversial issue that might get in the way — gay marriage, "don't ask, don't tell," and, yes, illegal immigration — usually gets shoved far back in the cupboard.

Still, who am I to tell my fellow Latinos that there's no Santa Claus? I figured I'd let things play out, and they'd learn soon enough that the Democrats were getting ready to sell them out.

Now Pelosi, D-San Francisco, has tipped her hand. Last week, according to the Capitol Hill newspaper The Hill, she privately assured fellow

representatives not to worry about having to address immigration reform and other controversial issues until the Senate acts first. Concerned that voters will react negatively to a proposal to legalize millions of illegal immigrants, Pelosi is promising to protect vulnerable members' seats.

Actually, change that to "protect Pelosi's job." After all, if Democrats lose the majority in the 2010 election, she'll lose her speakership. No more flights on government planes. Once reduced to backbencher, Pelosi might have to do the unthinkable — fly commercial.

And what's this nonsense about waiting for the Senate to act? You might think this is about seeking cover from the upper chamber. Not so. If House Democrats feel vulnerable and think that the immigration debate could cost them support back home, then they're going to avoid it like H1N1 whether the Senate has taken action or not.

What Pelosi is counting on is that by passing the buck to "the world's greatest deliberative body," the deliberation will turn into dithering, delay and derailment. Then the House can skirt the issue that Rahm Emanuel, former Pelosi lieutenant and current White House chief of staff, has called "the third rail of American politics." You touch it, you die.

Pelosi is throwing cold water on the prospects for immigration reform just as Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., has introduced an immigration bill that, while not perfect, at least starts the conversation. As Gutierrez was trying to get the legislation on its feet, Pelosi cut it off at the knees. That's not a good look.

The Hill quoted Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., president of the freshman class of representatives, as being in agreement with Pelosi's abdication of leadership. Connolly said that "freshmen, particularly, are not enamored of the idea of being asked to walk the plank" on a controversial issue such as immigration reform.

That freshman had better bone up on his studies before midterms. What Connolly calls walking the plank, I call Democrats having to walk it like they talk it. And if they don't have the courage to do this, at least stop trying to throw Latinos off the scent by making it seem as if the powerless and hapless GOP is to blame for derailing comprehensive immigration reform. It isn't. Not this time. This debacle is on the Democrats.

In fact, here's my theory: The real reason Democrats are stalling is because, on this hot-button issue, they're not comfortable being in power. They know they're destined to lose seats in Congress in next year's elections.

And when they do, and a few prominent Republicans become the new faces of the opposition, Democrats will accuse them of killing immigration reform.

It's brilliant and cynical and slimy. But it only works if Latinos get lost in the smoke and mirrors.

http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_14058828


Speaker Pelosi to shield vulnerable members from controversial votes
By Jared Allen - 12/16/09 06:00 AM ET
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has privately told her politically vulnerable Democratic members that they will not vote on controversial bills in 2010 unless the Senate acts first.

After a year of bruising legislative victories that some political analysts believe have done more to jeopardize her majority than to entrench it, Pelosi is shifting gears for the 2010 election.



The Speaker recently assured her freshman lawmakers and other vulnerable members of her caucus that a vote on immigration reform is not looming despite a renewed push from the White House and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. The House will not move on the issue until the upper chamber passes a bill, Pelosi told the members.


But according to Democrats who have spoken to Pelosi, the Speaker has expanded that promise beyond immigration, informing Democratic lawmakers that the Senate will have to move first on a host of controversial issues before she brings them to the House floor.


“The Speaker has told members in meetings that we’ve done our jobs,” a Democratic leadership aide said. “And that next year the Senate’s going to have to prove what it can accomplish before we go sticking our necks out any further.”


Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), the president of the freshman class, said that Pelosi came to last Wednesday’s freshman breakfast to deliver that message, and that it was met with wide spread approval.


“I think freshmen, particularly, are not enamored of the idea of being asked to walk the plank on a controversial item if the Senate is not going to take any action,” Connolly said.


Pelosi’s promise could dim the prospects for other White House priorities as well, including the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) — known as “card check” — and the repeal of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” prohibition on gays serving openly in the military.


“There’s not going to be a ton of stuff legislatively next year either way,” a House leadership aide said. “But on EFCA — even though the House has demonstrated its ability to pass it — and on Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, the Senate is definitely going to have to act first.”


The House passed EFCA during the last Congress, but members who voted on that bill were well-aware it had no chance to be signed into law by President George W. Bush.


After passing a series of expensive bills, including the $787 billion stimulus, Democrats are vowing to reduce the federal deficit next year.


There certainly will be difficult votes for Democrats next year, ranging from raising the debt limit to funding the troop surge in Afghanistan. Those types of “must-pass” bills are expected to clear both chambers of Congress.


Some liberals are concerned that there will be fewer Democrats after the 2010 elections and that the White House should ramp up, not slow down, its agenda. They have also made the case that President Barack Obama and congressional leaders must move left to ensure that the Democrats’ base will show up next November, and argument immigration reform proponents have been making with increased intensity in recent weeks.


Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and administration officials recently agreed that, on the heels of the House taking the lead on a climate change bill that was declared dead on arrival in the Senate and a healthcare bill that’s taking on a more centrist form with each passing day, the Senate would have to pass an immigration reform bill before the House would vote on its own.


Key House Democrats have said that Pelosi needed to solicit that promise from Reid in order to quell an emerging two-front rebellion in her caucus — from Hispanic Democrats who had grown tired of hearing false promises, and from vulnerable Democrats tired of being forced to support contentious bills facing certain death in the Senate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/72...tes%3Fpage%3D2