well i think if more republican would cooperate then it would pass this year. I think Congress has the votes needed to pass it but democrats will not be able to do it alone.

I have been watching the trend in polls over the past few months. All i can say at the moment in terms of losing votes in the senate, there is a chance we can lose up to 2 to 7 pro immigration votes ( that is counting both sides) but at the same time we could actually gain 2 to 5 votes ( net votes) for immigration depending on the election outcomes. Of course that is the ideal situation.

What many people are overlooking not all the republican candidates that have a chance to win are necessarily against immigration reform ( actually some are pro immigration reform). At the same time some of the democrats that we are losing voted against immigration reform.

My guesstimate is overall we will lose about to 2 to 4 pro immigration votes in senate. Nothing that can not be overcome if republicans start working with the democrats. If the republicans that in past have voted for immigration reform, start working with democrats then in my opinion it is a done deal even in 2010.

So i am personally being optimistic. However, the issue is not the senate in my opinion. What is more important is that will democrats still have enough votes in the house after the election?

So i think even after election CIR is still doable. If no republican vote for it this year then it will not pass any ways. The same will be true in future.

In my personal opinion republicans will eventually come along. Hispanic vote is becoming very important in the presidential elections ( and some state elections). If they want to be able to win that, they need to compromise.