Even John Kerry was leading Bush in national polls weeks before the election. He lost Ohio signalling his defeat. At that time, the country was afraid of changing presidents during war time. Right now, the country is very unlikely to change presidents during an economic crisis and possible second recession. Romney would totally mess everything up with his radical policies. All government programs will be cut back resulting in job loss. I don't think the public is ready for him yet. That hispanic demographic in Ohio and Florida and other states will really bring this home for Obama.