Obama got 10 million less votes because the Republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars in Super PACs to try to defeat him. And failed. Even Rove tried to console donors by saying they would have lost by even worse had they not spent the money. Imagine. Worse. With the economy as it is. That's not a pretty sight.

Blacks have supported the Democratic Party in incredibly high numbers. Might their turnout decrease? A little. But remember that Latinos play an increasingly important role in the party. Their turnout may increase. Same thing with women. 2016 is too far away to really predict, but if Dems can mobilize Latinos or women, even if they lose some Blacks, they'll have the same base support (barring anything crazy).

If the Republican Party continues on the path of failing to support immigration reform, they will lose. The Tea Party is the only real constituency with power that hates immigration reform, and they have nowhere else to go. If they really care about their vision for the country, they'll have to play ball and vote Republican no matter what. And if they don't, they'll have hell to pay from Democrats and mainstream Republicans when they show up at primaries again expecting to have a voice.