Originally Posted by NK74

Can I throw some cold water?

First, as I ve said a ton of times, stop assuming that Obama is emperor who moves legislation at whim. He represents one out of three branches of government. In the Senate, Democrats have a majority, but not a supermajority. They will need Republican acquiescence. They seem to have it. Finally, there's the House. The House not only is controlled by Republicans, but right wing Republicans residing in safe seats -where their main political risk is a primary challenge from an even more right wing Republican. Those right wingers are probably the majority within the Republican caucus.

Two. Legislation moves slowly under the best of circumstances. Slow-ly.

Three. These aren't the best of circumstances, primarily because both parties will be heavily focused on outmaneuvering each other on the debt ceiling. The unfortunate part is that the debt ceiling not only sucks precious air out of the legislative calendar but it creates bad blood both between Democrats and Republicans and among Republicans themselves. There's also the gun control issue which is also going to divert attention.

A serious concern should be that bad blood created by the fiscal negotiations might lead to backlash or non-cooperation on an issue like immigration. The fiscal cliff negotiations have already left Boehner significantly weaker and vulnerable. A weakened Speaper is less likely to take risks for the cause of CIR.

Four. It's been said that the issue is how to find another 80-100 Republicans to vote for CIR. This is not the issue. The votes are there. The issue is Boehner allowing an open vote on the floor. Now, it's been said that since Boehner allowed an open vote for the fiscal cliff, he will allow one for CIR. He may, he may not.

There's a reason Boehner uses the Hastert Rule, i.e. only allowing votes which enjoy the support of the majority of his conference, as a rule of thumb. As long as he allows votes on issues where the majority of his conference supports, it also means he enjoys their support as well. The more he bypasses the Hastert rule and allows votes which his conference doesn't support, the more he puts himself on the wrong side and leaves his leadership open to a challenge and a revolt.

So does this mean that Boehner won't allow a vote on CIR? No. It just means that the crucial question is not whether the votes for CIR exist among the House and House Republicans, but whether the Right Wing of the Republican party will tolerate an open vote on CIR. In other words, this is a question of whether the right wing of the Republican party is fanatically opposed to immigration reform -in which case, they will revolt against Boehner if he allows an open vote- or if in understanding the long term interests of the Republican party, they can allow an open vote that would allow CIR to pass, while they themselves vote against it in order to posture and appease their constituencies back at home.

Five. Even if that happens, crafting a compromise isn't going to be easy. There is a reason people go for comprehensive reform. By piecing together popular (dream act, agjobs) and not so popular (legalization of undocumented) elements of an issue, people manage to craft a winning coalition for all measures.

The first wrench opponents of reform throw at it is to ask for piecemeal reform. Asking to pass the Dream act or Agjobs as individual pieces of legislation may seem reasonable, but it's in effect an effort to torpedo the unpopular parts of the package.

The second issue is that the two parties have different takes on what reform means. Democrats want a pathway to citizenship, Republicans prefer a solution involving guest workers. Pull in one direction and you lose votes on the other side. Pull another direction and you lose votes from the other side. A package that gets 60 votes in the Senate might be a tall order, but then it becomes an even taller order when it needs to pass the even more conservative House.

For CIR to pass, legislators will have to thread the needle.

All of this is not to say that CIR will not pass, but that it will be difficult, time consuming and it will involves compromises that don't provide full satisfaction.

So, stop thinking about March passage. Summer passage is more realistic. Stop expecting Obama to do everything. There's no magic wand of eloquence that can persuade his opponents and in this instance, things depend way less on what Obama says or does and more on how Republicans calculate their self-interest. Do focus your gaze on the Republican House, because, in all likelihood, this is where the pivotal point lies.

Most of all, be patient and don't lose your nerve. This is going to be a long and arduous process.