Zero if you're not covered under 245(i). Dept of Labor will issue you a PERM certification, USCIS will happily take the company's money for I-140 and deny your I-485 since you're out of status.

If you're covered under 245(i) then your chances are pretty good. You only need a Bachelor's to get EB-3, or Bachelor's and 5 years of experience to get EB-2. Only problem being the process is painstakingly long, especially if your PERM falls under a random audit you'll be looking at 2 years of just waiting for DOL to stop twiddling their thumbs.