He lost quite a few (or pissed off quite a few non-voters) looking at the current left-swing in 2017 and 2018 Special elections:

CA-34: +18
KS-04: +23
MT-AL: +15
GA-06: +6
SC-05: +16
UT-03: +3
AL-Senate: +30
PA-18: +20

All above except CA-34 are normally safe R seats. There is 130 seats to the left of PA-18 that are held by republicans. Democrats need 25 to take house. Another bellweather to watch out for is AZ-08, PVI R+13, carried by Trump by 21 points. If this one flips then AZ senate will flip, as will whole bunch of other stuff.


There's one thing to consider about the electorate. True swing voters are relatively rare. You hear about those Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton voters but in all reality they're a tiny minority. Electorate swings as a whole by who comes in to vote and who stays home or writes in Mickey Mouse*.

* - Might think I'm joking but 22k people wrote in candidates for Alabama Special. Doug Jones won that election by a little over 20k votes. Democrats actually ran a targeted ad campaign against likely republicans who didn't really want to vote for Moore as to how to write in some Football Coach in instead. Hillary also lost MI and WI by fewer votes than Jill Stein got.