Immigration reform's path to 218 House votes

Ianus · 06-28-2013, 12:27 PM

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/20...18-house-votes

Quote:

With the kind of efficiency and competence we're not accustomed to seeing on Capitol Hill, the Senate passed comprehensive immigration reform fairly easily yesterday, despite the opposition of most of the chamber's Republicans. It was one of those rare instances in which a bipartisan group of lawmakers crafted a plan, stuck to it, and it actually worked.

But as is painfully obvious, the House of Representatives, led by a radicalized Republican majority that's openly hostile towards immigration, will be a far more difficult hurdle.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), unable to lead his own members, has already said he will not allow the Senate bill to receive a vote. Indeed, he's vowed not to bring any comprehensive immigration reform bill to the House floor unless most of his caucus gives him permission to do so -- which would suggest that reform advocates, thrilled by yesterday's success in the Senate, start dramatically lowering their expectations.

That said, all hope is not lost, at least not yet. There are three scenarios, some of which are realistic than others, which suggest reform still has a pulse, despite right-wing objections.

First, Boehner may be bluffing. The Speaker has vowed to stick to the so-called "Hastert Rule," which is a made-up procedural standard, but he's changed his mind about this before. Indeed, Boehner has a habit of saying lots of things, only to change course later. It's true that on immigration, he hasn't left himself a lot of wiggle room, but he's also publicly endorsed a comprehensive solution to the nation's broken immigration system, suggesting he doesn't want to see the entire effort die, especially at his hands.

Second, the House might pass an alternative. The House GOP strongly objects to the Senate bill, for reasons that aren't entirely clear, but the lower chamber could, in theory, pass a related bill and send the whole thing to a conference committee. There's a bipartisan "gang" in the House that swears it's nearly done with a bill, and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) has a plan of his own in mind. If the House can get its act together and pass something, a worthwhile package may yet emerge from bicameral talks.

Which leads us to my preferred option...

... there's always a discharge petition. As a rule, the only bills that reach the House floor for a vote are the ones House leaders allow to reach the floor. But there's an exception: if 218 members sign a discharge petition, their preferred legislation is brought up for a vote whether the majority party's leadership likes it or not.

In terms of specific numbers, there are 201 Democrats in the House caucus. If literally all of them are prepared to support the bipartisan Senate bill, they would need 17 House Republicans -- just 7% of the 231 GOP House members -- to join them on the discharge petition. If, say, 10 conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats from Southern states balked, they would need 27 Republicans to break party ranks.

Just last week, we were told they were as many as 40 House Republicans who consider themselves moderates, unhappy with their party's far-right direction. Is there a chance half of these alleged centrists might sign a discharge petition and get immigration reform done? Sure there is.

The odds aren't great, but don't let all the "D.O.A." talk convince you the reform fight is already over.

I had no idea the moderate House GOP had a name associated.I guess any reliance must be on the "Tuesday Group" to get reform done....including a potential discharge petition if possible.

VeryNicePerson1 · 06-28-2013, 12:55 PM

Very interesting...I'm just hoping there is a solution soon...not exactly looking forward to August arriving with no progress in the House.

CIR_DREAM2009 · 06-28-2013, 01:11 PM

These should be the Republicans who could sign a discharge petition if threatened sufficiently by their districts.

There's a few others as well mostly from vulnerable Republicans in the Northeast and other blue states.

Nic89 · 06-28-2013, 01:16 PM

Only one person can make it possible is President Obama. President needs to start campaigning every battle geound states that have impact of latino and asian voters.

Pianoswithoutfaith · 06-28-2013, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nic89

Only one person can make it possible is President Obama. President needs to start campaigning every battle geound states that have impact of latino and asian voters.

So how can president make this happened? He's not above the house of representatives. There is a reason why they call it checks and balances

freshh. · 06-28-2013, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CIR_DREAM2009

These should be the Republicans who could sign a discharge petition if threatened sufficiently by their districts.

There's a few others as well mostly from vulnerable Republicans in the Northeast and other blue states.

Thanks.

Lamar Smith comes from a district where more than 25% of eligible voters are Hispanic? What is going on out there?

CIR_DREAM2009 · 06-28-2013, 01:27 PM

Nate Silver from 538 blog did all the number crunching. I'm only the messenger!

satnam · 06-28-2013, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nic89

Only one person can make it possible is President Obama. President needs to start campaigning every battle geound states that have impact of latino and asian voters.

The Republicans hate Obama. If he starts doing that then they will once again (just like they already tried to say) claim that the Senate plan is actually written by Obama. Which is why it's "so terrible". And then they will vote against just because Obama is too involved with it.

Task_1539 · 06-28-2013, 04:46 PM

For a long time I believed boehner was bluffing to save face, then claim he was politically strong armed by such a sweeping senate passage.

Fuck this shit.

TexasDreamy · 06-29-2013, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freshh.

Thanks.

Lamar Smith comes from a district where more than 25% of eligible voters are Hispanic? What is going on out there?

I live in his district. It's a very rich & affluent district with the borders decided down to the block level to include large commercial businesses, military bases, car dealerships, while leaving the poorer blocks out. Basically, the district is gerrymandered to hell. The 25% represents a disenfranchised minority which exists in this district solely to help cement the republican power in other districts -- basically the way it works is that the district is set up in such a way that they know he's always gonna get say ... 60% of the vote -- so the line is drawn in such a way that those voters can't vote for a democrat in another election.

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Immigration reform's path to 218 House votes