Professor who forecast Trump's victory predicts impeachment for president-elect

Academic: Trump will be impeached

Donald Trump caught the world by surprise when he emerged victorious at the U.S. elections, but his stay at the White House could be short-lived, according to a professor who has correctly predicted presidential poll outcomes for the last 30 years.

Allan Lichtman, a political historian at the American University, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday that Trump's history of playing "fast and loose with the law," his unpredictability as well as lack of public service experience could lead to an impeachment.

He added the prognostication was based on a 'gut feeling' rather than the scientific methods he employed in predicting Trump's election victory.

Since winning the election last week, Trump, along with his Vice President-elect Mike Pence, has been trying to fill out key posts in his Cabinet. Reports, however, hinted at the strain his transition team was under in setting up a new administration.

Trump also faced backlash when he appointed Steve Bannon, the former president of Breitbart News, as his chief strategist and senior counselor.

"Trump is a wild card," Lichtman said, adding Bannon's appointment would be a litmus test for the President-elect to either jettison him or stick with him no matter how controversial he became.
Though Republicans have won the majority in Congress, Lichtman pointed out they did not have a "filibuster-proof majority" in the Senate. Trump's appointment of controversial figures like Bannon and his unpredictability could make it more difficult for the Republicans to work with Democrats and other members of the Congress, he said.



"Republicans love control and they would love to see Mike Pence as president because he is predictable and controllable - a down-the-pipe standard conservative Republican."
Lichtman's predictions on presidential election outcomes were based on history. Appearing on CNBC in October, Lichtman explained he looked at 13 "keys" he developed by studying every election from 1860 to 1980 and then applied it to the next eight elections.

The way his method worked was if six or more "keys" went against the incumbent party at the White House, its candidate would likely lose the election. In the October interview, Lichtman said there were six "keys" that were against the Democratic party.
To-date, only two presidents have been involved in formal impeachment trials by the Senate - Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1999.


Even before Donald Trump was officially declared the winner of the 2016 presidential election, thousands of people were looking at what it would take them to remove him. Independent reported that Google searches for “how to impeach a president” jumped by 5,000 percent in the hours after the presidential election results were announced.

At the federal level, Article II, Section 4 of the United States Constitution addresses impeachment.

“The President, Vice-President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

So, Trump cannot be impeached until:

1. He officially becomes the president of the United States of America. As of now, he has not accepted the presidency.
2. The federal law allows impeaching someone only if they actually do some heinous crime.
3. Even if the Americans want to impeach their president-elect after he takes hold of the oval office, citizens are not allowed to impeach anyone. It’s the job of the House and Senate. After this year’s election result, both the Senate and House are now represented by Republicans, so it would be extremely difficult to remove their first choice of president.
4. Even if Donald Trump will be impeached somehow, then future Vice-President Mike Pence will become president, who will be followed by Paul Ryan, Orrin Hatch and the list goes on for 14 other candidates.

And what? Get Pence as president. No.

Exactly, President Pence means the deportation force out to remove all 11 million undocumented immigrants and a Nazi like state where you are required to carry documents at all times.

Pence is a scary looking guy. He looks like a sergeant.

Yeah we can't impeach trump. Pence is a much worse choice

People like 2MoreYears are praying day to day to have Trump impeach but don't realize the danger there is.

Is there anyway to impeach Trump, Pence, and their supporters/cabinet members (0r soon to be) all in one go? Because that would be great. Though the chaos that would cause is probs not worth it :/

If this happened, hardcore Republicans would be super triggered.

Noooo please let's not get Pence :\
Makes you wonder if Trump is secretly a genius for picking Pence as his running-mate.

There's an invisible trend going on lately with reverse psychology marketing. Where bad marketing is made on purpose to lower people's expectations and create bad PR (but there's no such thing as bad PR), then before release they will show people something better so people will be happy and buy their product.

It's easier to get people from sad to happy than it is from happy to even happier.

There COULD be a chance Trump's team is using this strategy.

Trump himself has no political experience. The very people he said he wasn't against back when he was campaigning are the very people he's putting on his team.