Immigration, the Senate picture

A great post with the breakdown of where the votes for CIR are and how they may play out in the Senate if CIR is introduced. It doesn't copy well onto here, so click the link and take a look. It's definitely worth it.

http://webkit.dailykos.com/stories/2...e-picture.html

Immigration, the Senate picture
by kos
Tue Apr 13, 2010 at 11:16:05 AM PDT

Yesterday, we noted that Reid says he has 56 votes for immigration reform. I'm going to speculate about who those votes are based on past votes, statements, and Hill sources.

Probable YES, 40 (Republicans in bold)
Boxer (CA)
Feinstein (CA)
Bennet (CO)
Udall (CO)
Dodd (CT)
Liberman (CT)
Carper (DE)
Kaufman (DE)
Nelson (FL)
Akaka (HI) Inouye (HI)
Harkin (IA)
Durbin (IL)
Burris (IL)
Kerry (MA)
Cardin (MD)
Mikulski (MD)
Levin (MI)
Franken (MN)
Shaheen (NH) Lautenberg (NJ)
Menendez (NJ)
Udall (NM)
Bingaman (NM)
Reid (NV)
Schumer (NY)
Gillibrand (NY)
Wyden (OR)
Merkley (OR)
Specter (PA) Casey (PA)
Reed (RI)
Whitehouse (RI)
Graham (SC)
Warner (VA)
Leahy (VT)
Cantwell (WA)
Murray (WA)
Feingold (WI)
Kohl (WI)

Probable NO, 32 (Democrats in bold)

Sessions (AL)
Kyl (AZ)
Shelby (AL)
Chambliss (GA)
Isakson (GA)
Grassley (IA)
Crapo (ID)
Risch (ID)
Roberts (KS)
Bunning (KY)
McConnell (KY) Vitter (LA)
Bond (MO)
Cochran (MS)
Wicker (MS)
Burr (NC)
Johanns (NE)
Nelson (NE)
Dorgan (ND)
Ensign (NV)
Coburn (OK)
Inhofe (OK) DeMint (SC)
Thune (SD)
Alexander (TN)
Corker (TN)
Hutchison (TX)
Cornyn (TX)
Bennett (UT)
Byrd (WV)
Barrasso (WY)
Enzi (WY)

With Dorgan retiring, he might be a gettable vote. But for now, I'll keep him in the nos given his past votes against immigration reform. Others, like Alexander and Johanns may be gettable if the stars aligned properly, but I wouldn't count on it.

So who are the "maybe" votes?

On the Democratic side, these 17:
Begich (AK), Pryor (AR), Lincoln (AR), Bayh (IN), Landrieu (LA), Stabenow (MI), Klobuchar (MN), McCaskill (MO), Baucus (MT), Tester (MT), Hagan (NC), Conrad (ND), Brown (OH), Johnson (SD), Webb (VA), Sanders (VT), and Rockefeller (WV).

Now Reid says he has 56 votes, so he's likely got most of these. With 59 votes in the caucus, and just three probable "no" votes, that's 56. Republican Lindsey Graham is co-sponsoring the Senate reform bill, so I assume Reid is counting him in his 56. That means that of the names above, just one is likely a current "no" vote. How much do you want to bet that it's Blanche Lincoln?

On the Republican side, these 11:
Murkowski (AK), McCain (AZ), LeMieux (FL), Lugar (IN), Brownback (KS), Snowe (ME), Collins (ME), Brown (MA), Gregg (NH), Voinovich (OH), and Hatch (UT).

McCain used to be a solid yes, but he's got a bug up his ass about Latinos abandoning him in 2008. Perhaps it had something to do with his promise to vote against his very own immigration reform bill when pressed about it at a GOP primary debate. The Republicans were desperately trying to one-up each other in immigrant bashing, and McCain abandoned his previous support for such legislation to appease the nativists. Then he wondered why Latinos refused to vote for him.

Taking Reid's words at face value, that means he'd have to find four votes among this list. In a sane GOP, we'd get all of those Republicans (yes, even Hatch, who used to be good on the issue until former Rep. Chris Cannon was ousted by conservatives for being pro-reform).

Reid should push for a vote whether he has the 60 or not. While the ultimate goal is reform, even a losing vote would show Latinos where the opposition is coming from, and help motivate them for the November elections.

Uncanny how much we think alike. I wanna hump Markos.

Check this roll call article out

http://www.lvjournalreview.com/npri-...2-april-132010

hahaha. Gee thanks for making me look lazy!! I'm on my phone that and too much effort to go make it all bold...I wish I was at home in front of my MacBook in booty shorts too. Hahaha.

Harry Reid may be no Nancy Pelosi, but if he said he'd do it, then he will. The fact that there's already 56 people in his caucus ready to go shows that he has been working on CIR behind closed doors, and by the same token, it makes our job that much easier since we don't even have to worry about persuading Democratic Senators. If those 3 Democrats said no to Reid, no matter how many calls they get, they won't change their minds.

But most importantly this article seems to confirm what I've been saying for a long time: just because someone is not willing to co-sponsor, doesn't mean they won't vote yea. I think that Snowe is one of those on the safe yea column.

Wish you were here too boo.....in your booty shorts

You sure do know how to make a black man blush.

I guess Reid changed his mind...

http://dreamact.info/forum/showthread.php?t=14366

He will still pursue immigration reform, but after memorial day. He has not abandoned it completely (hopefully).

But it still seems a little hypocritical, given what he said at the rally less than a week ago. He's on record as saying: "We are going to do this now."

Who knows....