Today the Senate begins its debate over immigration reform, with conservatives set to offer a slew of amendments designed to change the Senate “gang of eight” compromise — or kill it outright. But the most revealing thing out there this morning about the immigration debate concerns the House, and it comes in this interview that House Speaker John Boehner gave to ABC News this morning.
In the interview, Boehner repeatedly refused to answer two questions. First, he would not say whether the final bill that emerges from the House will have a path to citizenship in it. And — even more important — he would not say whether he would refrain from allowing the House to pass a final bill mostly with Democratic support. Both of these are critical to understanding how this whole battle is likely to unfold.
Pressed repeatedly by George Stephanopoulos on whether the House would pass something that includes a path to citizenship, Boehner demurred again and again, only saying that he expected the House bill to be “to the right” of the Senate bill. And pressed repeatedly on whether he would allow the final product to pass with mostly Dems, Boehner said: “It’s not about what I want. It’s about what the House wants…we’re gonna let the House work its will.”
Boehner’s interview reminds us of a stark fact: It remains unlikely that a majority of House Republicans will support a path to citizenship, which is to say, it’s unlikely they will ever support real, comprehensive immigration reform. This is an added incentive for Senate Democrats not to give up too much in concessions to the right in the quest for overwhelming bipartisan Senate support.
After all, the chances are that we’ll see one of two endgames. Either the House will pass nothing, in which case reform’s prospects would likely turn only on whether the House GOP leadership allows the Senate bill to pass with mostly Dem support. In this scenario, there’s no need to give away too much to win over the Orrin Hatches of the world. Or the House will pass something weak and non-comprehensive — a right-wing shadow version of reform, perhaps in pieces – as Boehner himself seemed to signal is likely by refusing to say whether the House could support citizenship. In this scenario, Dems would be better served to enter into conference negotiations with a strong Senate bill rather than a compromised one. At any rate, if conference talks result in a weak bill, it will lose Democratic support and be a nonstarter.
But either way — however we get there — it is becoming more and more likely that the prospects for real reform turn on whether the House will pass a comprehensive bill with mostly Democratic support. There’s been a lot of speculation that this would cost Boehner his Speakership. But Boehner’s comment — that ultimately this is about “what the House wants” – is telling. If many mainstream House conservatives privately want reform to pass (without voting for it) that very well could happen, with mostly Democratic support, at no real risk to Boehner. The Speaker left the door open to that possibility today, and that’s a big deal.
Just yesterday alone 45 amendments were introduced to S.744 so we'll see how this plays out over the next few weeks of debate,and especially what affect it would have on the House product.
