Support snowballs ahead of Senate vote on immigration bill

freshh. · 06-24-2013, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Immigration reform has gotten a new burst of life as a growing number of Senate Republicans have embraced the 1,000-page-plus legislation, setting up President Obama for a big victory this week.

The sudden surge in Republican support has been a pleasant surprise for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who urged the bill’s authors to focus on winning 60 votes — the minimum for passing it.

Instead, Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), the leaders of the Gang of Eight, are marching toward 70 votes, a target intended to put maximum pressure on the House to act.

The House is the X factor. The lower chamber is expected to pass narrow immigration bills that do not include a path to citizenship, which is a staple of the Senate legislation. Conservatives in the House, including Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), strongly oppose the Senate bill.

Still, an overwhelming bipartisan vote would be a strong boost for a Senate bill that just days ago was teetering.

Schumer said Sunday the bill has support from about two-thirds of the Senate’s members and predicted it would attract “in the neighborhood of 70 votes” for final passage.

He said such an outcome would put pressure on House Republicans to accept legislation similar to the Senate bill and warned of massive demonstrations in Washington if Boehner refused.

“If he tries to bottle it up or do things like that, I could see a million people on the mall in Washington,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

The bill’s authors secured extra Republican votes by striking a deal with Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) to double the number of patrol agents and construct 700 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border at a cost of roughly $30 billion.

The measure includes a provision that would prevent immigrants from claiming credit for time spent working illegally when it comes to calculating Social Security benefits. It would also ensure welfare dollars do not go to immigrants with provisional legal status.

The deal created some friction with liberal Democrats such as Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who argued that a promise of $4.5 billion in new border-security technology spending is a potential magnet for waste and fraud.

Leahy grumbled that the Corker-Hoeven language “reads like a Christmas wish list for Halliburton.”

Speaking on the Senate floor, he added, “I am sure there are federal contracting firms high-fiving at the prospect of all of the spending demanded by some of our friends on the other side.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), a liberal independent who caucuses with Democrats, has spoken out against what he has called a “massive increase in temporary guest worker programs” at a time of high unemployment. But Sanders is likely to vote for the bill after negotiators agreed to provide $1.5 billion over two years for a youth jobs program.

Negotiators secured the support of Sen. Mark Begich (Alaska), another swing Democratic vote, by including language ensuring immigrant labor for Alaskan seafood processors — an arrangement that has already been dubbed “the Crabhusker kickback.”

Sen. Mark Pryor (Ark.), the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the 2014 election, says he is leaning in favor of the bill. His pledge puts Reid on a trajectory to pass it with the support of all 54 members of the Democratic caucus.

Senate opponents of the legislation had done a good job keeping their Republican colleagues in check up to the middle of last week.

Last Tuesday, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said the legislation “could fall apart quickly” without an agreement on border security. A day later, even Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a pivotal member of the Gang of Eight, declined to say whether he would vote “yes” on final passage.

The political calculus quickly changed on Thursday morning as news of the Corker-Hoeven deal spread. By early afternoon, reporters were already asking Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and other opponents if they were fighting a “losing battle.”

Fox News host Bill O’Reilly became a harbinger of conservative support when he endorsed the Senate bill on Thursday.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), the Democrats’ top electoral target next year, opened the door for a larger bipartisan vote by not trying to rein in any Republicans from backing it. At the outset of the debate, he said he hoped the Senate would pass a bill.

The likelihood of McConnell voting for the bill dropped Sunday when his home-state colleague Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) announced on CNN that he would vote against it for not guaranteeing border security before granting legal status to millions of people.

Sessions said Republican support for the Corker-Hoeven amendment could wane as senators learn more of its details.

He noted the legislation would not require the full deployment of 20,000 additional border patrol agents until 2021 and would let Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano dispense with the fence-building requirement if she judges it unnecessary.

“If people find out this amendment does not accomplish what the sponsors believe it does, I think the bill could be back in trouble again,” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Reid admitted Friday that he had not thought the bill would win 70 votes. He initially pushed back against the target, fearing that meeting it would require steep concessions.

“No one other than the senator from New York thought we could get 70 votes,” Reid said on the floor, referring to Schumer. “I doubted he could get 70 votes. He knows I doubted that. No one in this body thought we could get 68, 72 votes except him.”

Reid has scheduled a vote on the Corker-Hoeven compromise, which is expected to pass easily, on Monday and a vote to end debate on the broader bill on Thursday. His schedule would set up a vote on final passage before lawmakers leave for the July 4 recess.

The Nevada Democrat predicted last week that “there’s going to be significant national pressure on the House to do something on immigration.”

Even though there is renewed optimism in the Senate, there is growing skepticism that the GOP-led House will ever accept a bill that includes a pathway to citizenship.

Last week’s collapse of the farm bill, which required support from both sides of the aisle, led to partisan finger-pointing. If any immigration bill is going to get to Obama’s desk this year, it will have to be backed by both parties.

Source

We need to focus on Boehner over the recess. If the House does not have a bill and this passes the Senate with a vote in the 67-70 range then there is no reason to hold up CIR to wait on the House group to do months of work that we know will not be accomplished before the August recess.

What do you guys think?

Severity · 11:05 AM

I say its really up to Boehner. Hopefully it won't die in the house. Also I believe(guessing) that the house bill will come out in the next two weeks. If it doesn't then they'll drag their feet for a really long time, killing momentum from CIR

IamAman · 06-24-2013, 11:46 AM

Boehner has always been practical and will play ball when he knows it will benefit his party.

Happyman0607 · 06-24-2013, 12:49 PM

I get so annoyed when I read about they're constructing a bill without a path to citizenship.. It is absolutely mind boggling why they would waste even a milasecond on legislation that they know would never get democrat support and would be vetoed by Obama... It just goes to show you.. These representatives just waste time on bull shit bills.. People need to start voting for people who actually have the people they represents best interest at heart

freshh. · 06-24-2013, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IamAman

Boehner has always been practical and will play ball when he knows it will benefit his party.

Yes, but I don' t know if he's willing to bet his Speakership on CIR. I guess the silver lining in all of this is that members of his own caucus don't trust him to not bring the Senate bill to the floor.

Ianus · 06-24-2013, 01:19 PM

I believe Schumer mentioned there were currently 67 votes which means there are probably ~14-16 Republicans currently for the bill in the Senate.

I think ultimately The House will require a different tactic.The problem that I have is do we have someone as effective as Senator Schumer in the House whether Republican or Democrat to assemble the numbers?The only two individuals I think that may even possible to do this are Rep. Ryan and Gutierrez if they work solidly together.

Boehner has directed Paul Ryan to see if the CBO numbers are true on S.744 which is a really good idea on the side of the Speaker!This is what provided the extra numbers[money from CBO projections] and negated objection from the Corker-Hoeven amendment on the Democrat side.It could also have the added effect of breaking up the House Republican caucus into those who want to get something done via security measures[e.g. Sen. Corker and Hoeven] and those who may have other issues not relevant to the debate at all[e.g. Sen. Sessions].

I was thinking perhaps what could be done is use the SAFE act concerning Interior enforcement that the House Republicans are pushing and use the very same savings CBO projected to pay for it if possible.There is no doubt ICE police,ICE investigations,USCIS' investigative arm and US consulate inspection will have to be increased to supplement or match the increase in legal visa entry if we hope to convince relevant House Republicans I think.

I think the CBO projection gives a good figure about the bill but I think there is still the issue of individuals who will simply overstay their US visas from then on if border security will be tight.The whole point of getting a bill is to effectively end illegal immigration and reforming the system,according to Schumer,through the many different facets of the immigration system that can be agreed upon by both parties!

Happyman0607 · 06-24-2013, 01:39 PM

I honestly believe we have 218 votes in the house it's all going to come down to if boehnor will allow a vote on it

StepUp · 06-24-2013, 02:21 PM

So when are they voting in the senate ?? Isnt it today ?

j83 · 06-24-2013, 02:31 PM

I think support in the house will increase when Paul Ryan comes out in the affirmative of the CBO calculation -- I think a tactic GOP leadership is doing to garner support. GOP leadership and many GOP organizations and influential personalities. (I.e Karl Rove, Bill O'reilly, Sean Hannity) want CIR to go through for the future of their party. It's the extreme right that doesn't want anything done. Will Boehner allow the fringe right to take their party down? I really don't think so, but Boehner has to do it in a subtle discreet way so he won't appear a traitor to half of his caucus. A vote of 70+ in the senate will send a strong pressure to Boehner to do something.

Watch for some kind of a different tune to come out from the house after senate approves the bill.

DA User · 06-24-2013, 04:28 PM

Will House take up the Senate bill if Senate passes?

If not, perhaps House should add a border surge measure like Senate did?

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Support snowballs ahead of Senate vote on immigration bill