How Immigration Reform Can Pass

Ianus · 06-27-2013, 05:49 PM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer...-can-pass.html

Quote:

The Senate just passed comprehensive immigration reform by a wide 68–32 margin. Now the bill heads to the House, or possibly nowhere. The only way to pass a bill is with Democrats supplying most of the votes. But John Boehner has promised conservatives he won't let any bill lacking support from most Republicans come to a vote — which, if kept, would doom immigration reform. That's what everybody, including me, has been saying.

But it's not completely true.

There's a way around this problem: the discharge petition. If 218 members of the House sign one, then it automatically comes to the House floor for a vote. Last December, Democrats in the House threatened a discharge petition to bring up a Senate bill extending the Bush tax cuts on income under $250,000 a year.

House Democrats would have to do it again with the Senate immigration bill. Democrats only have 201 votes, so they'd need seventeen Republicans to join them, plus one for every Democrat who defects.

Could it work? Well, discharge petitions are rare. But the circumstances here are rare, too. For the majority party, signing a discharge is an act of disloyalty against the leadership. It undermines the Speaker's ability to control what comes to a vote.

But Boehner gave every indication of wanting immigration reform to pass (as most GOP elites do). Now conservatives have pressured him into promising to keep the bill off the floor. But if Boehner wants the bill to pass, he wouldn't want to punish the handful of Republicans who sign a petition.

So then the question would be, could Democrats find seventeen House Republicans willing to endure the wrath of conservatives to sign a discharge petition? The threat would come from primary challenges from conservatives. On the other hand, there is a lot of pro-immigration money out there available to support any Republican facing such a challenge. And the other big advantage of a discharge petition is that Republicans wouldn't need to save bipartisan face by rounding up a respectable number of their own party to support it. Just the bare minimum would do.

Indeed, the House wouldn't have to legislate at all — it could (and would have to) simply photocopy the Senate bill. No hearings, no negotiations — and since the House is bad at all those things, that's another plus.

Immigration reform is a very unusual circumstance. There's a natural majority for it in the House, and the House leadership privately wants it to pass but is being hemmed in by activists. Right now, the discharge petition — normally a wild long shot — looks like the straightest line to a signed bill.

Rep. Gutierrez already mentioned there were 218 votes already but now it would only be a matter of what Rep. would be willing to do it.

Rogue414 · 06-27-2013, 05:54 PM

Nice troll.

Task_1539 · 06-27-2013, 06:00 PM

It won't happen.

Lost Generation · 06-27-2013, 06:05 PM

Borhner needs to man up and do what's best for his party

jsar8 · 06-27-2013, 07:09 PM

If we could map House Republicans that are in danger of losing their seats because of the Hispanic vote, and pressure them on this issue with letters, and calls. They may cede. After all, they care more about being re-elected, than about their party. Lets pressure Pelosi and Gutierrez to threaten Boehner with this discharge petition, it would be of greater embarrassment to not bring it to a vote, and have the Democrats bypass his authority. That would show he definitely has no leadership.

DA User · 06-28-2013, 02:25 AM

I think discharge petition will happen. I think House will get 75% majority.

AL · 06-28-2013, 02:32 AM

A discharge petition could definitely work. The mere threat of one would make the Republicans change their perspective on the Hastert Rule. Let's gain at least 218 votes to keep the ball rolling all the way to the white house.

bertdude7 · 06-28-2013, 03:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DA User

I think discharge petition will happen. I think House will get 75% majority.

are you kidding me? 75%? Where do you get these numbers from, do you just randomly spew them out? No It wont happen with that majority of that size.

Pianoswithoutfaith · 06-28-2013, 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bertdude7

are you kidding me? 75%? Where do you get these numbers from, do you just randomly spew them out? No It wont happen with that majority of that size.

DA user has proven many times that he does not know what hes talking about and is best to ignore him.

jayz10 · 06-28-2013, 06:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pianoswithoutfaith

DA user has proven many times that he does not know what hes talking about and is best to ignore him.

thats about 6000 posts that dont make sense lol

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How Immigration Reform Can Pass