Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates

bad.bunny · 09-22-2018, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, the researchers estimate there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Even using parameters intentionally aimed at producing an extremely conservative estimate, they found a population of 16.7 million undocumented immigrants.

The results, published in PLOS ONE, surprised the authors themselves. They started with the extremely conservative model and expected the results to be well below 11.3 million.

“Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” says Edward Kaplan, the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at the Yale School of Management. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50% higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”

Jonathan Feinstein, the John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale SOM, adds, “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, ‘What is it based on?’ You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”

The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?

The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”

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versailles · 09-22-2018, 02:24 PM

i fucking told all of you. lmfao, how dumb do you feel now?

libertarian1776 · 02:55 PM

u are so fucking smug, bro. lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by versailles

i fucking told all of you. lmfao, how dumb do you feel now?

isk84life · 09-22-2018, 03:35 PM

Lol
This is actually good news. Can you imagine what would happen to the economy if they deported 20 million people?! Hahahah. That’s like half of California!

DACA-IR-DA · 09-22-2018, 04:07 PM

It’s probably more.

TexasDreamy · 09-22-2018, 04:18 PM

Literally millions of us!

JJ Glo · 09-22-2018, 05:03 PM

Good luck trying to deport 20 million

Got_Daca · 09-22-2018, 05:40 PM

Not sure if good or bad.

One thing is for sure: all of them will have USC babies.

In 20 or so years, USC babies will demand citizenship for their parents.

Got_Daca · 09-22-2018, 05:41 PM

Remember, they estimated Dreamers to be 1.6 mil?

Only 800k approved for DACA

Grain of salt is needed.

Demise · 09-23-2018, 10:14 AM

"PLOS ONE" is where you publish your paper if no one else will return your emails.

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Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates