Immigration Reform Unlikely with Obama

lilbawler2001 · 11-12-2008, 06:19 PM

Quote:

For Latinos who assume that helping to elect Obama president guarantees them another shot at comprehensive immigration reform, his selection of Rep. Rahm Emanuel as his chief of staff is not a good sign. As Speaker Nancy Pelosi's enforcer in the Democratic-controlled House, Emanuel was -- in the last two years -- a major stumbling block to achieving an immigration package. Capitol Hill newspapers reported shouting matches between Emanuel and members of the Democratic-controlled Congressional Hispanic Caucus, who tried unsuccessfully to pressure the leaders of their party to tackle the issue.

It's not that Emanuel has anything against immigrants or immigration reform. It's just politics. According to The Washington Post and other newspapers, Emanuel decided that the issue was a loser for Democrats and that it belonged on the back burner. He was protecting the Democratic majority in the House by covering members who might be vulnerable to ouster if they were seen in their home districts as going along with "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. Once in the White House, I suspect Emanuel will channel those instincts toward protecting President Obama from a sticky debate.

The conventional thinking is that the issue has very little benefit for Democrats beyond scoring points with Latino voters, who will probably stay in their camp anyway. And it has a significant downside in that it makes some powerful enemies. Contrary to what you hear from the pundits, the Democrats' major concern is not the nativists on the far right. Those who call into talk radio shows to complain about taco trucks or having to press "1 for English" never had much power to begin with. And they have even less now that their mean-spirited worldview has been repudiated by an election where much of the narrative was about embracing cultural diversity.

As has always been the case with the immigration issue, what Democrats worry about most is antagonizing their sponsors in organized labor. Bringing back the debate over comprehensive immigration reform means restarting the discussion of a new guest-worker plan -- which John Sweeney at the AFL-CIO considers "a bad idea (that) harms all workers."
It's true that President-elect Obama owes Latinos an enormous debt for giving him two-thirds of their votes. But Obama and congressional Democrats also owe a lot to labor. Those IOUs are headed for a collision. I'm betting on labor to win. I expect immigration reform to be off the agenda for the next four years, especially since Obama will be looking to placate the unions while backing off the loony idea of renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement. That was never a serious proposal anyway, only something that Obama embraced during the Democratic primary to win votes from defeatists convinced that American products can't compete with foreign ones.
Expect Latinos to get shortchanged -- again. They may get bought off with a couple of high profile appointments. Bill Richardson is already mentioned as a possible secretary of state and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio

Villaraigosa could also be in line for a prominent role in the new administration. As someone who made history, Obama could also make more of it by appointing the first Latino to the Supreme Court. That would buy a tremendous amount of good will.

Yet when it comes to immigration, Obama will have trouble keeping his promise of comprehensive reform from last summer. He will probably toss Latino supporters a bone by stopping construction of the border fence that he voted for in the Senate and ending the workplace raids that have caused so much disgust in the Latino community.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...likely_wi.html

VJB2 · 11-12-2008, 06:41 PM

I was wondering when the articles like this were going to start coming in..

ECW · 11-12-2008, 06:43 PM

This is not surprising to me at all, with 1.5 million jobs expected to be loss by the end of this year how does congress convince their constituents( even if they are from a liberal district) that legalizing 12 million people all at once is the right thing to do in these hard economic times. As much as I want it to happen Comprehensive Immigration Reform is going to be extremely difficult to sell.

FHL · 11-12-2008, 08:26 PM

Wouldn't it be more possible to pass DREAM ACT then? Maybe they can attach it to some education bill? I hate having to keep waiting...and reading articles like this. O_o

BeatlesFan · 11-12-2008, 09:05 PM

I know man every day is a new article, and i am compulsively reading them all, alas seems to me 80 percent are positive.. still. G'z.

dream3320 · 11-13-2008, 12:39 AM

so far the articles have been mostly positive except this one, i dont mean to sound selfish but if the reform doesnt pass, i still wish it doesn't affect the DA's chances.. I guess we can just wait and see

my only fear is that DREAM might be seen as something too small and when going over the education issues it might be overlooked =/

geronimo610 · 11-13-2008, 12:52 AM

honestly, articles don't mean much. They are almost always written by pro-immigration hopeful optimistic liberal journalist who wants to reveal the sunshine. Remember last year??? I wouldn't count on it. The way I see it we gotta work our butt off to get this thing passed.

lonely_dreamer · 01:24 AM

In 2007, we had senators who flip-flopped because they felt that supporting DREAM would hurt their chances of being re-elected. Now, we have a new set of problems to deal with (as if we didn't already have enough). It was hard for us back in 2007; it will be hard for us in 2009.

Even though I know it will be hard, I have not lost hope. Those senators who flip-flopped might vote for DREAM now that they have won re-election. John McCain might come back to our side now that he's no longer running for president. We might be able to persuade the newly elected Democratic senators to support DREAM. And although a few Republican DREAM supporters have retired and have been replaced by non-supporters, we might be able to grab other pro-immigration senators like Graham (not likely?) if we call and fax them incessantly.

But none of these would matter if DREAM were not brought up for a vote. Let's hope that Obama keeps his word and gives us the change he has promised.

dream3320 · 11-13-2008, 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lonely_dreamer

But none of these would matter if DREAM were not brought up for a vote. Let's hope that Obama keeps his word and gives us the change he has promised.

yeah i can't wait for the day where it gets brought up. thats why i try not to worry about the voting itself.. i worry about it being brought up because that would bring my hopes up so high.. once its brought up then we can stress about the voting

Fish · 11-13-2008, 01:24 AM

I don't believe these articles. Things change over the course of four years and I think immigration reform should come up at least in his first term or the start of his second term.

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Immigration Reform Unlikely with Obama