Immigration reform won’t come until 2014, expert says

Ianus · 01-18-2013, 06:30 PM

Good for Dream,bad for reform.They should always go after what they can agree on I think.

Quote:

House Republicans are continue to be a roadblock for immigration reform, despite efforts in the Senate and from President Barack Obama, according to University of Texas at Austin Government Professor and immigration policy expert Terri Givens.

“I definitely think he’s going to propose it because right now it’s clear that Obama is concerned about his legacy, as well as keeping promises,” Givens told us, noting the importance of keeping promises made in 2008 to Latino voters.

The president is likely to work through the Senate to propose legislation, which might even result in something being passed by the summer — but then the problems would start she said. Republican House Speaker John Boehner has not had much control over the House, thus, a bipartisan effort there is unlikely, she said.

“I think that it’s more likely that they are going to use the fact that it passed in the Senate as a wedge issue, against a lot of House Republicans in the 2014 election. I think that’s why you’re seeing folks like Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida trying to get ahead of the issue,” Givens said.

Although Republicans like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, and perhaps even John McCain, will likely be involved in the immigration reform efforts, it’s unlikely that House Republicans under the leadership of John Boehner will support them, Givens told Politic365.

Thus, it looks like we won’t see any immigration reform until 2014, she said.

“Unfortunately the timeline is probably going to be more likely close to 2014, but I think there is a chance that, for some pieces of the legislation like the DREAM Act, could possibly get through before 2014,” Givens said.

The largest number of Latino members of Congress are currently serving, but most of them are freshmen, thus, although they will likely be involved in immigration reform efforts, they are not as influential as Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez, for example. Other potential players may include ex-immigration reformer Arizona Senator John McCain, as well as New York Senator Charles Schumer.

Piecemeal legislation, that’s not comprehensive immigration reform, is a much easier target, Givens said. Skilled immigration reform, for tech workers for example, as well as the DREAM Act are likely to be appealing to enough folks to get legislation passed, she added. In that case, about 800,000 people could benefit (based on deferred action estimates), but when you include family, spouses and children of undocumented immigrants, the effects of a DREAM Act could be huge, she explained.

Specifically, cementing Latino voters as a reliable Democratic constituency, similar to what happened with civil rights legislation and black voters in the 1960s.

“If you look at the Democratic Party in the 1960s and how it shifted to being the part of black voters because of civil rights legislation, I think you might see the same thing happen with immigration reform,” Givens said. “We’ll have to see how it plays out.”

EditorInChief · 01-18-2013, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ianus

Good for Dream,bad for reform.They should always go after what they can agree on I think.

I agree with what the article says.

Dream Act should be considered and passed on its own without attaching it to the CIR.

Dream Act is much more acceptable.

jadee87 · 01-18-2013, 06:54 PM

"Piecemeal legislation, that’s not comprehensive immigration reform, is a much easier target, Givens said."

This is what I've been saying. It's easier to pass the DREAM Act than to convince Republicans on CIR. Of course we should push for CIR but I think it will be easier to tackle different reforms in smaller bills.

Pianoswithoutfaith · 01-18-2013, 06:57 PM

And because it would benefit only us and not other people but its fine cos its note realistic right guys

Chn · 01-18-2013, 07:00 PM

If its so easy, why couldn't we convince 5 republicans 2 years ago. 5!

Sonawabich · 01-18-2013, 07:02 PM

Experts Schmexperts

EditorInChief · 01-18-2013, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chn

If its so easy, why couldn't we convince 5 republicans 2 years ago. 5!

In fact, even some Democrats voted against the Dream Act that time in the Senate.

The Dream Act itself is already hard enough to pass.

Texdaddreamer · 01-18-2013, 09:27 PM

I'm not an expert, but I do believe that now is the best time for a CIR . Second term presidents have a little window to act on their legacy because they become a Lame Duck presidents real quick. I haven't seen this much enthusiasm from conservatives to reform immigration (evangelicals, chamber of commerce leaders, talk shows and so on) since 2007. Another point this expert is missing is that the 2014 midterm elections will be in the way of any significant piece of legislation. I do give her that the house is going to put up a hard fight but there will be a tremendous push from activists, lobbyists and everyone pro reform that they will give up. In my humble opinion, if CIR does not pass this year it may never happen at all, and I don't see the senate passing just a Dream act or STEM bill

2Face · 01-18-2013, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EditorInChief

I agree with what the article says.

Dream Act should be considered and passed on its own without attaching it to the CIR.

Dream Act is much more acceptable.

What are you trying to say? Why is CIR not acceptable? It is not only acceptable..but it is required and we are entitled to it. It is long overdue. The Union owes us this bill. I don't care how. I don't care if there has to be bloodshed in the senate and house floors. They must send that bill to Obama's desk. The President himself claimed that he will pass CIR in his first term. He didn't. Why should we listen to some random "expert" then? Look at the reality of the situation. Obama was talking out of his rear when he made that prediction. He didn't know he would have to tackle the economy and health care first. But the road seems absolutely clear this time..Immigration Reform is on deck.

Yume · 01-19-2013, 12:30 AM

Realistically speaking, I think that a dream act is more likely considering usc seem to have more sympathy for dreamers. And I'm sorry 2face but you are entitled to nothing.

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Immigration reform won’t come until 2014, expert says