Congress And Immigration Reform: The Complete Guide To High Hopes, Certain Doom

1. Recent tragic events: How the attack on the Boston Marathon might affect the chances of immigration reform's passage is probably one of the most petty things about which to be concerned right now. But the impact it may have is nonetheless very real. While Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, the suspect now in custody, is a naturalized U.S. citizen, his troubled brother Tamerlan had his application for citizenship held up by the Department of Homeland Security, by dint of the fact that he'd been questioned by the FBI "at the request of the Russian government, which suspected that he had ties to Chechen terrorists."

2. The "GOP suicide" argument: Of course, the tragedy in Boston is not the only weakness that opponents of reform can attack. In terms of the policy, critics dislike two things about the reform package in particular: the "path to citizenship" -- which fervent opponents still consider to be amnesty writ large -- and the border enforcement "trigger" that might just be a "goal." The latter will, in all likelihood, be the key sticking point with GOP lawmakers, many of whom might be amenable to a "path to citizenship" on both practical and humane grounds, but won't be able to convince their constituents to let them cast a "yea" vote without ironclad assurance that the Southwestern border won't get locked down tight.

But skepticism over the policy might get trumped by skepticism over the politics. By which I mean, the extant fear that the passage of comprehensive immigration reform is tantamount to "GOP suicide."

3. Obama's support: I know it sounds inane, but the very fact that Obama may sign the bill could be reason enough for the GOP to destroy it. Who wants to hand the president they hate a big legacy item, after all? Beyond that, there is latent suspicion of Obama's motives. Take Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (please!):

“I think the reason the White House is insisting on a path to citizenship for those who are here illegally is because the White House knows that insisting on that is very likely to scuttle the bill,” Cruz told Jan Crawford, adding that it would allow Democrats to run on immigration reform in the 2014 midterms.
“What would you do with the 11 million people who are here illegally?” Crawford asked later in the interview. ”I think there could probably be a compromise on that,” Cruz answered, “if the a path to citizenship was taken off the table.”


4. The House Of Representatives: The reason that the Octogäng is hoping against hope that they pull off a 70-vote win, is because the result might be bold enough to influence the decision-making of the far more skeptical members of the House GOP caucus. Any amount of "x-factor" would be helpful, because at the moment, the outlook for getting reform through the House is pretty mixed.

But the National Review's Robert Costa -- who's so close to the pulse of the GOP that he could probably insert a stent should some cardiac emergency arise -- notes that House Speaker John Boehner has lately embraced the "regular order" as a means of transforming the House into a "slow-motion sausage factory":

In Beltway-speak, this meant that, from then on, Boehner would chiefly use the committees to craft legislation. Lawmaking, in almost every sense, would be slowed down. Instead of being the subject of haggling in the Oval Office over Merlot and Nicorette, bills would be amended and fleshed out through committee hearings, the way they have been since time immemorial.
[...]

“Regular order” is cited inside the Republican cloakroom as a slightly subversive way in which the president can be stalled. Boehner’s shift has created a slow-motion sausage factory for Obama’s legislative projects. Even if the Democratic-controlled Senate passes a bill, it faces a tortuous procedural future in the lower chamber.

full article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3166603.html

Wow This is not going to be as smooth as many of us think it would be. These GOP Reps have no heart at all. They are a bunch of p*ssies who want immigrants to stay here but without any documents.

#3 - Well they should've passed it when Bush was running the show.

It's pretty damn pathetic that passing this damn thing is depending on Boehner alone. He decides to give the rein to that asshole Goodlatte and reform is pretty much dead. He decided to try the senate bill - it will most likely squeak through.

we are in a for long long long run


DAP user might not make it

No one said this would be easy. Stay strong, brothers.

lol Speak for yourself brah..DA User has been in the game ever since you were in diapers

People would vote against them in coming election and their opponents would destroy them if they were to vote in favor due to the recent incident, they would lose a lot of reputation. They have done so much for this country like the white girl says ''its like o-m-g its unfreaking believable''. This is all ironic unfortunately, seen it number of times. Most of these reps are sluts, do anything to feed their needs.

that is true, thought I think a CIR would affect him more than me

jesus... you two are so cruel

DA User is a great pal of us he takes NO offense