This is a great article and I think the points should resonate strongly for anyone who desires a reform package to eventually get through the Congress.The idea is that you shouldn't believe everything you read concerning articles as they are just for information purposes[even if I post it].
The biggest problem for reform hasn't been Democrats and not simply just as simple as "Republicans" being at fault.I think many understand we do have Republican lawmakers who are allies for reform......but those same Republicans allies also have allies of their own within their party.
Creating laws require the art of deal-making and concessions and some Senate Republicans seem to know when to use it at the right time despite the political risks and even going as far rebuking some within there own caucus,but such a thing doesn't seem to be prevalent in the House of Representatives simply because of the structure of House rules where simply,"The Majority Rules!" .When the structure of a lawmaking Congressional body has no way of promoting the political parties to work together it becomes clear that one can only work within these rules.
This leads us to where the only option that may lay ahead and that is to acquire a solid 20-25 House Republicans voting for a path to citizenship...no matter what! Boehner is still unknown and more than likely any bill that comes out of any House committee will be more than likely visa reforms and border security only.The idea is that it is quite likely that no report will come out of a Senate-House conference unless there is a legalization component and I think a variation of the Dream act has a strong chance of remaining intact up to this point....but the votes would still be needed in the House to vote for the conference report!
Quote:
Be careful of immigration bill analyses that give heavy weight to the strongest opponents of what they call “amnesty.”
A Reuters story that got a fair amount of attention this past weekend does just that. Prospects for an immigration bill passing the House are indeed hard to report on, but the key here isn’t what House extremists want. Their votes aren’t in play anyway.
Look at the math. As Reuters notes, Republicans currently have a 233-201 edge in the House.
Can Republicans pass any immigration bill without Democratic support? That would be the case if they attempt to pass a slimmed-down bill without any path to citizenship. Republicans have been claiming they can do that, but I still think it’s unlikely. Such a bill would probably get very few Democratic votes — perhaps none at all. Meanwhile, if the bill were generous at all toward immigrants it would almost certainly lose those Republican members who oppose immigration reform of any kind; if it was harsh toward immigrants it would presumably lose moderates and those conservatives who believe that support for immigration is the proper conservative position. Either way, it’s hard to see them getting to 218 with only Republicans.
On the other hand, legislation with a path to citizenship would have support from the bulk of the Democrats and need only a relatively small group of Republicans to join them. Judging from the Senate — where three of the eight Republicans on the Judiciary Committee already voted for a comprehensive bill — finding 20 or 30 Republicans to vote yes shouldn’t be too hard.
However, that scenario depends on House Speaker John Boehner bringing whatever the Senate passes to the House floor. He’s said he won’t do that, but as I’ve said before, he surely would if it’s the only way of getting a bill to pass and, crucially, if the majority of his conference wants a bill to pass.
Which is where it gets complicated for reporters. It may be the case that a fair number of Republican members want a bill to pass — but without their votes. They may believe that the bill is good for Republicans in general but not in their districts; they may even believe that their own long-term prospects are better with an immigration bill in place but that their short-term prospects could be endangered if they support it.
If that’s the case, however, those members who support passing the bill but don’t want to vote for it are certainly not going to want reporters to print that; for the record, they may even be among those who denounce “amnesty” the loudest. A tricky assignment for reporters, indeed. And a good reason for all those reading the news coverage to be very cautious.
