Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week

EdoIsa · 09-17-2016, 05:06 AM

Quote:

Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.

It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast.

...

When a candidate has a rough stretch like this in the polls, you’ll sometimes see his or her supporters pass through the various stages of grief before accepting the results, beginning with a heavy dose of “unskewing” or cherry-picking of various polls. In this case, however, the shift in the race is apparent in a large number of high-quality surveys, and doesn’t depend much on the methodology one chooses. FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster all show similar results in their national polling averages, for example, with Clinton leading by only 1 to 3 percentage points over Trump.

This potentially ignores a more important question, however. Sure, Clinton might lead by only a percentage point or two right now — with a similarly perilous advantage in the Electoral College. But is that necessarily the best prediction for how things will turn out in November?

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Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...=2016-forecast

DogJuiceMan · 09-17-2016, 09:00 AM

I live in NC, I pretty much know this state going red.

Pancho1 · 09-17-2016, 11:57 AM

Stop relying too much on polls. I hope you get your sleep at night.

DogJuiceMan · 09-17-2016, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pancho1

Stop relying too much on polls. I hope you get your sleep at night.

I don't get a good night's rest anymore.

EdoIsa · 09-17-2016, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pancho1

Stop relying too much on polls. I hope you get your sleep at night.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogJuiceMan

I don't get a good night's rest anymore.

Me neither ... I stay awake until 4-6 am every night so yesterday I went onto Trump's website and read his policy on Immigration, and contrary to belief, it actually calmed me down a little .... it's extremely broad which means it could go both ways for us ....

Or maybe that's just my desperate ass learning to cope with my stress by hoping.

VeryNicePerson1 · 10:51 PM

It is unrealistic to think we are going to go into November with Hillary Clinton maintaining an 80%+ chance of winning the Presidency or some ridiculous number like that...the country is way too divisive...like an article I read once said that Republicans could nominate a Chicken and it would still end up with all Solid Red states and maybe a couple of battleground states for shits and giggles by voters trolling the system.

As long the candidates continue on the same track with one controversial moment after another for both of them, it will just end up being a dead heat at worse for either of them.

There also seems to be unfair expectations for Hillary, as for her to be considered doing OK in the polls (by the media etc.) she is "expected" to pull in ridiculous win percentages...but when polls show Donald Trump closing the gap, lets say his 45% to her 48% or his 47% to her 48%, then all of a sudden its panic at the disco and Hillary is on track to lose...smh...

Just pace yourselves everyone...and of course...hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

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Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week