Daily DACA Round-Up: 1/17/18

Hello. Yesterday's post was way too long for consumption, so I'll cut it down. So, let's get to the chase!

The biggest development today has been the "shutdown watch." If Congress does not pass a continuing resolution (CR) by Friday at midnight ET, the government will shut down. So, what has Congress done?

Not much! I mentioned yesterday that House GOP is whipping its members to vote for a four-week CR that will extend Children's Health Insurance Program for six years and delay Obamacare taxes, but it seems like that's not going so well:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b054e351771e88

Many House GOP members want their leadership to put Goodlatte's bill to a vote on the House floor before they vote on this CR. But the leadership hasn't shown the willingness to do so. For what it's worth, Goodlatte's bill is DOA on the Senate, so don't panic.

What about Democrats? I'll let The Hill's Congress reporter Scott Wong take things from here:

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/stat...99270699847680

Crooked Media has a "whip count" (https://gettowork.crooked.com/), but my own collection has 37 senators voting NO on another CR.

How did I get to that number? Well, there were 30 Democrat/Independent senators voting NO on Dec. 22. Then, Leahy (D-VT) said he is voting NO a few days ago.

Then, today, we have Carper (D-DE; https://twitter.com/SenatorCarper/st...22526370357248), Shaheen (D-NH; https://twitter.com/SenatorShaheen/s...71106242097153), Heinrich (D-NM; https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/statu...52567502311424), Udall (D-NM; https://twitter.com/SenatorTomUdall/...53751688499202) saying they will (or likely will) vote NO on this CR.

That's 35. Then...

Graham (R-SC; https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/stat...90883131572225) and Tester (D-MT; https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/...08426672132096) are also likely, if not definite, NO.

That brings the number to 37.

There are three more senators needed to force a shutdown. Why not four? McCain is still recovering from his surgery and it doesn't seem like he will make it to Friday's vote. So, only 40 senators are required for a filibuster.

Who might those three senators be? Pick three from the list below:

Coons (Delaware), Nelson (FL), Donnelly (IN), Peters/Stabenow (MI), McCaskill (MO), Hassan (NH), Heitkamp (ND), Kaine/Warner (VA), Manchin (WV), King (ME, who might be a NO - https://twitter.com/seungminkim/stat...73315293884416), Jones (AL)

It seems close, for sure.

While we keep an eye on this shutdown, let's move on to some other stuff:

We started the day with Sen. Cornyn (R-TX) throwing cold water on the Graham/Durbin bill.

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/statu...88595394310145

The bill still faces opposition from the WH and much of the House GOP, but it did pick up four more GOP senators (Collins, Murkowski, Alexander and Rounds (who wants "tweaks" including E-Verify), bringing the number of likely yes vote to the bill to 56:

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/st...68362764587009

In regards to the Hurd/Aguilar bill, WH Chief of Staff John Kelly said he hadn't heard about the Hurd/Aguilar bill until today: https://twitter.com/heatherscope/sta...42812150571009

But that shocking lack of knowledge aside, Cornyn threw a cold water to this bill as well.

https://twitter.com/LisaMascaro/stat...24846957039616

Meanwhile, the "Group of No. 2's" met today (https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/stat...95977214443521) in a process Kelly called "just talking." I don't see any possibility that Congress will come up with a deal this week... It seems likely that in the next week, the government will either be shut down or operate under another CR.

But the most fundamental question is... what does the WH really want?

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/statu...10294685057024

Trump is opposing the Graham/Durbin bill (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1F62QL).

When Kelly met with Congressional Hispanic Caucus this morning, he stressed that the WH wants a "permanent solution to DACA" and said Trump does not necessarily want a full wall, saying Trump has "evolved." - https://www.washingtonpost.com/power...=.bacfddd02bb8

Kelly elaborated on it in his interview on Fox News tonight:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...68923232657410

Will Democrats buy this? Unlikely. The next few weeks will be a rollercoaster of emotions as it has been for the last few weeks.

So, what's coming up? Well, there weren't any court action today, but it seems likely that we'll see DOJ officially asking the SCOTUS to rule ASAP on whether the court thinks the WH ended DACA legally (A reminder to submit your renewal ASAP). Will take some time for the SCOTUS to decide...

It seems more likely than not that House and/or Senate will at least try to vote tomorrow on the CR to Feb. 15. Stay tuned for that as well.

Also, I am interested in seeing whether the two bills (Hurd/Aguilar and Graham/Durbin) pick up additional supporters, especially on the Republican side. While the WH opposes Graham/Durbin and likely opposes Hurd/Aguilar, a veto-proof majority for either of the bills may send a significant message to House/Senate leadership and the WH. Unlikely that either of those bills pick up enough supporters to make them veto-proof, but just keep an eye on it in case.

That should do it for today! May God smile in our favor, and I leave you today with this:

http://www.clickhole.com/article/sil...ocialMarketing

(Yes, the article is a satire)

Graham is a no but from thr GOP if we assume Lee, Cruz and Rnd Paul vote no like last time then how many more Dems needed?

If Lee, Cruz and Paul vote no, we only need one. Maybe Flake?

If Lee, Cruz and Paul votes NO, then that's it. No need to add other Democratic senators.

I really enjoy your posts. Thank you so much for the well written posts as it clarifies everything going on in a bigger picture. With so much that's happening and constant ups and downs, this makes the process seem more stable than it already is and reminds me to be patient.

I am almost positive that Doug Jones will want to prove his worth to his party and will jump to support them by voting NO so I'm going to go by the number of senators is 38 that will vote NO.

Thank you very much for the summary. I have been really busy all day, couldn't catch up this helps. Thanks again.

This is also a good summary.

Republicans say there won't be a DACA vote this week. How will Democrats respond? - PBS NewsHour

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/re...ocrats-respond

They’ll shut it down.

A lot happened today... thanks for summarizing it!