Lame Duck Senate Worries - Page 2

ummmm... you know there's 37 seats up for election, right? please tell me you do.

yea of course i do. i thought DA user was talking about the 4 special election races in illinois, delaware, colorado and west virginia since thats what the article was about.. but yea i am well aware about the midterm elections but i still believe that democrats won't see any net gains in seats. sure they could pick up a seat or two that were previously held by a republican in states like ohio or missouri but democrats will lose more seats than they gain.

If Rep take majority in both House and Senate then if they DA, then wouldn't Rep get big support of Latinos for a vote?

DA user.. Yes the hispanics will still ask and advocate for immigration issues but if republicans have the majority it is less likely that something will happen than if democrats have the majority. You see, republican leader mitch mcconnell is a senator from kentucky. kentucky isn't a big hispanic population state (unlike california or texas). so he certainly doesn't need their help or vote to be reelected. and besides they don't really answer or listen to the hispanic people. their main and biggest voters and supporters are conservatives and the tea party people (you know.. the palin and her crazy supporters with all their obama as the joker or obama = hitler, nazi, socialist, communist, marxist, kenyan illegal immigrant and their obama go back to kenya where is your birth certificate? sign holding people that are completely against any kind of "amnesty" and all of them (wrongfully) consider dream act as a "backdoor amnesty". if republican majority in senate or house tries to pass any immigration reform or dream act, they will hear and face huge criticism and backlash from these people and fox news would go crazy along with rush limbaugh and all the conservative radio and talk show hosts. so even if they or some of them were for immigration reform, then they will become the next john mcfakes (he was scared about reelection and flip flopped because he was facing a strong competition from a even more conservative candidate in a primary election). so i personally feel that this year has better chance than next year or 2012 if republicans gain majority in either house or senate or both.

The Bottom Line Is, DA is Doomed

well i know that sounded really pessimistic and i'm definitely not trying to discourage the dreamers but i would be lying if i said it wouldn't be hard. but there is always a chance and historically big victories (legislatively or socially) have overcome long odds and strong opposition. and besides, we still have a chance this year until the congress is officially done for the year (end of lame duck session) and politics is a very unpredictable thing so anything can happen.

If HCR can pass then Dream Act should be a piece of cake.

health care barely passed by using reconciliation process.. you can't use reconciliation for immigration or dream act. you really need to stop making these outrageous claims

It would not have passed if it wasn't for the executive order for the Abortion part with Stupak.

yea but thats the house. the problem is that it barely passed the senate by using reconciliation. if they didn't have such a process, health care wouldn't have happened. same with dream act. it is so much easier to pass dream act in the house but again, senate is the problem because of the 3/5 vote requirement to break the filibuster. we're not worried about whether or not it would pass the house. we're worried about getting the 60 votes in the senate. now you see that getting 60 votes for any kind of "controversial" issues is very difficult. you just cant find 62-63 votes easily. especially in this kind of political climate. and don't say oh well yea it can get 62-63 votes easily if it came up as a stand alone bill. because youre wrong. it won't be easy to get 62 votes let alone 63 even if bennett and lugar said they would vote yes you have to also worry about moderate democrats who are in tough spots and could vote no or the ones that only want dream act as a part of comprehensive bill senators like hagan, ben nelson, lincoln, pryor, baucus, tester and conrad. and also now we probably can't count on scott brown to vote yes on dream act because he said dream act is amnesty.