The Republican Party has a Latino problem. Polls make it clear that months of bitter presidential primary fights over immigration — and a string of immigrant-crackdown legislation from Republican-controlled legislatures — have left the GOP out in the cold when it comes to the growing Latino electorate.
A telling sign of how the party has approached a growing electorate the GOP under President George W. Bush thought would one day become an important part of the Republican base: Some activists believe the party has scaled-down its ambitions from hoping to woo Latinos to simply hoping they’re too apathetic to vote for Democrats.
Not all Republicans are pessimistic, however: Republican superstar Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) has made a habit of trying to convince the GOP it’s time to Etch-A-Sketch away its recent rhetoric on immigration and get back to persuading Latinos to vote Republican. To that end, Rubio’s leading the charge for a Republican-friendly version of the DREAM Act.
President Obama is a strong supporter of the Democratic version of the DREAM Act, which would provide a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who serve in the military or get an education in America. Rubio’s version of the law would reportedly swap the citizenship guarantee for a sort-of permanent residency structure that would put eligible illegal immigrants in the long line for a chance at legal immigration through existing means.
Mitt Romney has said he’d veto the Democratic DREAM Act as president, a stance that Latino activists say is key to his problems with the Hispanic vote. (Other highlights of those conversations include the words “Kris Kobach” and “self-deportation.”) Romney hasn’t said what he’d do with Rubio’s version of the DREAM Act — which hasn’t been revealed in its entirety — but the law would give Republicans cover on the idea that they’re anti-DREAM, which puts them at odds with public opinion. Romney has indicated in the past, though, that he supports the idea of helping illegal immigrants who serve in the U.S. military, which gives him an opening to support Rubio’s bill.
Republicans think Rubio’s version of the law would give them the cover they need to make a credible run at the Latino vote.
“There’s an importance in going to the table and bringing up proposals and seeing what works best to fix the broken immigration system,” Alexandra Franceschi, a member of the of the Latino outreach team at the RNC, told TPM. “And I think that Sen. Rubio is taking the step that you need to see from all the members … that’s how it’s supposed to work.”
Latino Democrats say there’s no way the Rubio DREAM Act will change the perception of Romney or the GOP among Latino voters. In fact, they believe the “citizenship-lite” version of the law could make matters worse for Republicans.
“Being a Latino, I know what it means to be second class, to be sort of accepted with an asterisk,” said Texas state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer (D), chair of the state’s Mexican American Legislative Caucus. “I don’t think Latinos of any stripe in the 21st century are going to say that, ‘I am almost as good as somebody else.’ And that’s really what it boils down to.”
But putting any DREAM Act on the table — however reflective of the core Republican base concern that amnesty for immigrants is a dire threat to America — could change the perception that Republicans don’t care about the Latino vote. That could help the GOP leverage what Latino activists have said is a disappointment with Obama and Democrats.
Democratic Latinos have long rejected the idea that Democratic failures to produce meaningful immigration reform leaves any room for Republicans to make a play for the Latino vote. They say the damage has been done when it comes to the GOP. Now it’s up to the Democrats to leverage their advantage.
“There is no scenario in which the GOP nominee becomes the lesser of two evils on immigration or the whole range of issues critical to Latinos,” Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) told TPM. “But the president can recapture some of the enthusiasm that existed in 2008 if he leans into the immigration issue and recommits himself to being the pro-legalization, pro-citizenship, pro-reform candidate and really fights.”
