70 votes now possible for immigration deal

Ianus · 06-21-2013, 02:43 AM

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...tes-93146.html

Quote:

The Senate Gang of Eight edged closer to supermajority support on its immigration bill with Thursday’s breakthrough agreement on border security and other measures meant to attract wavering Republican senators.

Negotiators said as many as 15 GOP senators who were on the fence will now be inclined to vote for the landmark bill that revamps the U.S. immigration system and gives a pathway to citizenship for millions of undocumented residents due to the agreement drafted by Republican Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and John Hoeven of North Dakota.

If that happens, the immigration reform bill crafted by the Gang of Eight would be much closer to reaching 70 senators in its favor, which some Gang members have wanted, and leaders say such a broad bipartisan majority could inject serious momentum into the immigration debate as it moves into the GOP-controlled House.

Thursday’s agreement helps smooth the path to final approval of the bill in the Senate by the July 4 recess, leaders said.

“It is safe to say this agreement has the power to change minds in the Senate,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), one of the architects of the immigration bill.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), another member of the Gang of Eight, said the Corker-Hoeven amendment would get the Senate to 70 votes in favor of the bill. He was skeptical that the deal would lose Democrats because it is consistent with “the principles we set out to maintain.”

Corker and Hoeven’s plan includes a package of five conditions — or triggers — that will have to be met before current undocumented immigrants can ultimately obtain green cards.

The administration would have to get a comprehensive border security plan in place, hire an additional 20,000 border patrol agents, complete a 700-mile fence along the border, get an E-Verify system up and running and create an electronic entry-exit system at air and sea ports of entry.

The additional investments along the United States-Mexico border are expected to cost north of $30 billion, but the savings identified by the Congressional Budget Office this week would pay for the new security plan. Hoeven said the electronic tools in his plan, such as drones and infrared sensors, would cost about $3.2 billion. Finishing the fencing would be another $3 billion and deploying 20,000 additional border agents would be about $25 billion.

The CBO estimates that the current Gang of Eight bill will cut the deficit nearly $900 billion over 20 years.

“It would be very difficult to create a stronger border security bill,” Corker said. “I don’t know how you could do that.” He added that there is a “great possibility” of 15 Senate Republicans adding their support for the bill.

But the Corker-Hoeven plan doesn’t go as far as what other Republicans envisioned.

For example, a proposal from Texas Sen. John Cornyn, which had materialized as the chief GOP border security alternative, would have enacted tougher triggers until undocumented immigrants could get green cards, including installing a biometric exit system and apprehending 90 percent of illegal border crossings.

A critical Cornyn questioned how the Gang of Eight could agree to the Corker-Hoeven agreement, which substantially boosts the number of border patrol agents on the ground — one week after Gang members slammed the Cornyn plan for doing the same. Negotiators say the savings identified in the CBO score, released Tuesday, allowed them to pour some more money into border security.

“I was told we don’t need more boots; we need technology,” Cornyn said.

Senators cautioned that the fine print on the new agreement, not to mention the number of votes that it would guarantee for the overall bill, was still in flux. And key senators still have demands that are not addressed in the Corker-Hoeven agreement, such as specific E-Verify provisions sought by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).

Some elements of proposals written by Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) are in the package. For example, he had pushed stricter restrictions involving health care, and Thursday’s agreement excludes immigrants on tourist and student visas from accessing federal subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), another member of the Gang of Eight, said “most” of the 54 Democratic votes in the Senate would support the immigration bill, and he was pleased because Corker and Hoeven’s plan doesn’t impede the pathway to citizenship.

But, “if you’re asking me about the merits of this proposal, I think it’s overkill,” Durbin added.

Still, bolstering border security was a vital priority for many undecided Republicans who would be critical not only to secure 60 senators in favor of the legislation but also to push it to the 70-vote mark that some in the Gang of Eight have called for.

Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk, who was one of 15 Senate Republicans who voted last week against starting debate, said he would be “proud” to vote for the immigration bill once the Corker-Hoeven plan is passed.

“I like what I see today, as long as it doesn’t change,” said Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), who has signed on as a co-sponsor of the amendment and is considered a swing vote for the bill. Another co-sponsor is Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), who’s already said she would vote for the overall legislation.

It’s not just undecided Republicans who might be more inclined to vote for the immigration bill with the Corker-Hoeven deal.

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who has repeatedly broken from his party on border measures since floor debate began last week, told POLITICO that Thursday’s agreement makes the immigration bill “very much more palatable.” Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor has also expressed concerns about border security and has been talking with Corker and Hoeven about their plan.

“I’m voting for everything I can to secure our borders,” Manchin said Thursday.

The Gang of Eight negotiators said the deal will attract more Republican support, with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) saying the Corker-Hoeven plan “would pass and should pass with significant bipartisan support.” A vote on the amendment will most likely not occur until early next week.

“We’ve already had quite a few sign up as co-sponsors,” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said. “That would give us momentum and a significant number of votes to convince our colleagues on the other side of the Capitol that this is a worthwhile endeavor.”

Other Senate Republicans said they were still reviewing the bill.

“I like the fact that [Corker’s] involved,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.). “I think it increases the chances the bill will pass and get more Republican support. But I haven’t made a decision yet.”

zone2oo0 · 06-21-2013, 04:10 AM

vote on it already

Pianoswithoutfaith · 06-21-2013, 04:11 AM

“I like what I see today, as long as it doesn’t change,” said Sen. Dean Heller

I think we all agree with Mr Heller

Tonyhasadream · 06-21-2013, 04:28 AM

If it passes before the 4th, how long would be the process in the house?

2Face · 06-21-2013, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tonyhasadream

If it passes before the 4th, how long would be the process in the house?

This is impossible to predict. Keep in mind, the House has still not even introduced ANYTHING even in a COMMITTEE. It could take literally months if the House decides to just vote on its own so called piece meal bills. Lets see what happens after the Senate passes its bill.

freshh. · 06-21-2013, 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Face

This is impossible to predict. Keep in mind, the House has still not even introduced ANYTHING even in a COMMITTEE. It could take literally months if the House decides to just vote on its own so called piece meal bills. Lets see what happens after the Senate passes its bill.

Right.

And for all of Boehner's bluster, I believe he may be pressured into holding a vote for the Senate bill if the vote count actually reaches 70.

2Face · 06-21-2013, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freshh.

Right.

And for all of Boehner's bluster, I believe he may be pressured into holding a vote for the Senate bill if the vote count actually reaches 70.

This is exactly what will happen. I just hope we get the majority. In Congress, often times we get excited when a bill passes in one chamber and then it goes on to die in the next and the issue is forgotten for 1-2 years.

jayz10 · 06-21-2013, 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Face

This is exactly what will happen. I just hope we get the majority. In Congress, often times we get excited when a bill passes in one chamber and then it goes on to die in the next and the issue is forgotten for 1-2 years.

i think this time everyone agrees that something has to be done about immigration so the subject wont be put under the table. even in congress

Task_1539 · 06-21-2013, 09:56 AM

I hope we get enough to pressure boehner. The house is a failure. For all their talk, not even an appetizer has been offered.

DA User · 06-21-2013, 10:23 PM

I think it will be 75 Yays. Monday is the vote right?

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70 votes now possible for immigration deal