Winners and Losers From Immigration Reform

freshh. · 07-13-2013, 01:16 PM

Please excuse this article's use of the word amnesty. I thought you guys might want to know what the consulting firms and stock analysts are saying about immigration reforms chances. Not to mention some companies that are lobbying for CIR, but are not necessarily heavily reported about.

I really want to see how the Republicans hold out when big business is lobbying so heavily for a bill. This is another reason why I think a previous theory was correct in stating that they are trying to push the vote past the filing deadline for most districts in order to prevent some Republicans from being primaried by the Tea Party nuts and their "real conservative" candidates.

Quote:

Sweeping immigration reform, which was approved by the Senate in a decisive 68-32 vote late last month, would provide amnesty for as many as 11 million undocumented workers. Plenty of obstacles stand in the way of the bill becoming law, not least a rancorous House of Representatives. But the Senate's bipartisan support steps up the pressure on the House to adopt matching legislation.

Passage could happen early next year, says Daniel Clifton, the Washington analyst at Strategas Research Partners. "Although at times it will look as if the House and Senate cannot agree on a final immigration reform plan, most of the controversial issues will likely get worked out and passed into law by the end of Q1 2014."

Among the measures in the sweeping Senate bill are a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in exchange for payment of back taxes and penalties, and a doubling in the number of skilled immigrants granted temporary H-1B visas. It would also require a dramatic increase in border security, including an expansion of the fence along the Mexican border, doubling the number of patrol agents, and more-robust employment verification. (For a skeptical take on the fence, see D.C. Current.)

The House has a piecemeal approach in the works—with smaller bills addressing enforcement, expanding the number of visas for tech workers, and a new mandatory system for companies to verify their workers' legal status.

Given the vast divide between the Senate and House, whose members widely oppose amnesty, analysts and investors have not quantified the stock-market impact of immigration reform. But even without a swift passage into law, some companies are likely to benefit, while others will be penalized.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate bill, if signed into law, would boost government spending by nearly $300 billion in the next decade, of which $46.3 billion would go to border security. Overall, the CBO says, the bill would increase the total number of people residing in the U.S. by 9.6 million, and the "significantly increase[d]" labor force would offset any additional spending, cutting the federal deficit by $158 billion between 2014 and 2023 and $700 billion in the decade afterward.

A WIDE ARRAY OF companies are pushing for the bill. Facebook (ticker: FB) and Google (GOOG) have lobbied heavily for an expansion of H1-B visas, which would aid them in recruiting skilled engineers from abroad to fill positions they claim they can't fill with a domestic workforce. Tobacco giant Altria (MO), which relies on guest workers, has much at stake. As do companies that have been hit in the past by federal audits for using undocumented workers, including Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), American Apparel (APP), and janitorial and facilities management company ABM Industries (ABM).

Newly documented immigrants must file back taxes and will need help navigating the U.S. tax regime. While not all of the 11 million will take advantage of the amnesty, plenty will: An estimated two out of five people who sought amnesty in 1986 subsequently became U.S. citizens. That could significantly boost the number of returns processed by H&R Block (HRB), which prepares one in seven U.S. returns and is popular among low-income filers. Say half of that 11 million file just one year of returns, and of that one of every seven is prepared by Block. The result would be an extra 786,000 returns—a 3.5% increase over the 22.175 million returns the firm filed for clients in the just-completed tax season.

Accenture (ACN), a consulting and services firm, has an active border and identity management practice. It runs a key biometric data collection and processing division for the Department of Homeland Security, and is the major contractor for the US-VISIT technology for U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The system checks data, such as fingerprints and tattoos, against a database of suspected illegal immigrants as well as criminals, coordinating activities from a range of government units. Also, Accenture will benefit from the bill's harsh consequences for H1-B dependent companies: Susquehanna Financial analyst James Friedman thinks the bill could shift more than $4 billion in revenue to companies like Accenture.

Indeed, Accenture appears to be lobbying heavily for immigration reform: According to Opensecrets.org, Accenture spent at a much faster rate on lobbying in the first quarter than last year. Accenture declined to comment.

Source

Morrow · 07-13-2013, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Not to mention some companies that are lobbying for CIR, but are not necessarily heavily reported about.

This is where my hope lies, with the pessimistic atmosphere covers the recent forum, I really want to see what is working behind the scene with these lobbyist. As much as this CIR directly effect us, we are not in the know, we can only get gimps of it through news media and many of it are fog bombs meaning to misdirect and mislead us.

Quote:

most of the controversial issues will likely get worked out and passed into law by the end of Q1 2014.

Ah fuck.

dtrt09 · 02:46 PM

Arpril 2014 is too late!!!!! The White House has squandered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity by focusing on gun "control" legislation at the beginning of the year. Obama toured the country and the administration went on press tours for something that had even less, waaayyy less of a chance to pass than immigration.

Dems are not fooling anyone any more - Gutierrez is gonna have his comments come back and bite him in the behind; he told in several interviews that CIR had to happen early in the year for it to pass BY SUMMER.

Not to mention that it is inexcusable that 4 1/2 years on they still haven't finishied writing "bipartisan" - what a tired term- house legislation.

dreamerperson · 07-13-2013, 02:20 PM

And yet what results have we seen from this? Excuse my pessimism, but if even monied interest groups can't convince the GOP idiots, then what will? And where is these so-called evangelical groups that supposedly support legalization?

I'm with drt09 on House Dems not fooling anybody, either. They have options to overcome Republican obstructionism, but their reluctance is telling. Pelosi even wants to cave to watered down immigration reform bills.

It's just an excuse for all of them to say "Well we tried but the other party is at fault for ruining it!".

VeryNicePerson1 · 07-13-2013, 05:10 PM

What a shame...smh...

Pianoswithoutfaith · 07-13-2013, 05:23 PM

I TOLD YOU GUYS

by the end of April

of 2014

VeryNicePerson1 · 07-13-2013, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pianoswithoutfaith

I TOLD YOU GUYS

by the end of April

of 2014

LOL, probably won't be then anyway. More likely to be 2013 or bust IMO.

These guys don't even want to go near the Dream Act let alone pass it, so they make fun of it by bringing up the KIDS Act and associating it with the Dream Act. 5 year old age cap incoming.

kabs · 07-13-2013, 05:37 PM

To be honest, I never read these articles because I'll believe it when it happens. I've been following these estimates of bill passage since 2001 and have been let down way too many times.

Until then, whatever.

Happyman0607 · 07-13-2013, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kabs

To be honest, I never read these articles because I'll believe it when it happens. I've been following these estimates of bill passage since 2001 and have been let down way too many times.

Until then, whatever.

Yup, my exact attitude, I'll believe it when i fucking see it, these bafoons can't get anything done, congress itself needs a damn reform

Lost Generation · 07-13-2013, 07:51 PM

April fool joke just stepped up its game

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Winners and Losers From Immigration Reform