Numbers

Knowing about the DREAM Act for a while now, and finding out this great forum with tons of information today, I was intrigued to find out more information on this act which we are all hopeful for.

Page after page, I became a little more hopeful. Reading its history and current progress this year, gave me the view of high probability.

But.. I like numbers, and I'm not even sure anyone here can help me with this but hopefully one of you out there know enough of the act's history to be able to be of some help.

- What I would like to know in your honest opinion*, how is the dream act 2009 doing as compared to previous drafts?

- How long do we have? Is there a 'deadline'?

- In data you've seen in the past, does the 2009 act have any chance of passing?

- And lastly, if there are dates (asked 2 questions above), do you know them? As well as statistically, what is the chance this act will pass?

I understand I'm being very straight foward, but its my nature to. I like to know how much I have to 'fight' to make things happen.

* And lastly, I did ask for the 'honest opinion', so please don't manipulate it to represent more hopeful results. Life isn't fair and here we are all hopeful, but we know there is a chance for it to not work out. I would just like to know (if possible) what are those chances.

There's no way to come up with an objective answer, if you re looking for one. For example... how on earth would one be able to "statistically" determine the answers you ask??

While there is obviously no way to get statistically accurate numbers (only possible if you could see the future, which would be sweet), I would like to know in the opinion of someone who has been around this act since its early days, what are the chances of this years version passing (compared to previous drafts).
The reason for the last paragraph there is because if I myself knew that if it wasn't a very good chance, and someone asked about it, I would say at least 50% if not more, just out of habit of not 'killing hopes'.

The numbers on the website look good (ratio wise), but I have absolutely no experience in congress-related 'numbers', and for all I know, the last 10-15 are the hardest, if not impossible supporters to sign.

Edit:
More importantly, has the bill gotten across through more 'difficult' people this year, than previous drafts? Are we collectively just trying to spread its word, or conveying the 'tough' people in government?

- What I would like to know in your honest opinion*, how is the dream act 2009 doing as compared to previous drafts?
Yes the DA has the best chance of passing it’s ever had. There's a lot of support we never had before. Just look at one list of supporters here.

- How long do we have? Is there a 'deadline'?
Depends on who you ask. Like Abbadon said, there’s no way of knowing this for sure. Based on what the White House is saying, though, any action on immigration should occur no later than May of next year, so let’s hope we get something done by then.

- In data you've seen in the past, does the 2009 act have any chance of passing?
Yes. We have significant Democratic majorities both in the House and Senate, not to mention the White House. Furthermore, poll after poll show an increase in support for CIR. In addition, Durbin claims that the votes are there (which is easy to see if you look at the vote predictions on this site) and that if CIR fails, the next step would be to bring the DA up for a vote on its own.

- And lastly, if there are dates (asked 2 questions above), do you know them? As well as statistically, what is the chance this act will pass?
No, we don’t know the exact dates, but we do know that immigration is being prioritized right after health care and energy reforms, so when you see those two passing you’ll know it’s time.

Recently, Harry Reid said that if Republicans kept obstructing key legislation just for the sake of delaying reform, he would force them to forgo their winter break to make up for the time lost. So I would say that there is a 50% chance that CIR will pass this year. Otherwise, it would probably pass early next year.

@angeleno
That was the exact information I was looking for
With your point of view, and data from the website, the act seems pretty solid for me, and definitely worthy of putting more work into spreading the word/acting.

Thank you very much for your time! And if anyone has any other input, feel free to share!

Further proof that the momentum is on our side, and that CIR is imminent: The recent surge of "real Americans" (aka teabaggers) trolling the DAP.

Hm, never thought of it that way. Just assumed they were being their usual, ignorant and annoying selves. Now that I know that they only come here to put us down because they realize we are so close to achieving our dream, I won't let their offensive comments get to me anymore.