The 8 races that will decide the Senate (and the DREAM act)

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics

Ah, the Senate. The battle for control fascinates us — and all election observers — because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. Yet, as we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress’ upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no party will truly control the Senate come January 2013. There is little chance at Democrats or GOP will hit the magic 60 required to break filibusters. It looks like the winning party will have a smaller majority than the Democrats do now (53 seats) — if there is a majority at all. The tiny margin will enable the new Senate to do what Senates do best: a whole lot of nothing.

Since the retirement of Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), bservers have focused on the race to replace her. But while the likely three-way race is certain to be filled with twists and turns, ex-Gov. Angus King, an independent who appears likely to caucus with Democrats, is the favorite to win the seat. That means, by our calculus, this race isn’t among the closest, because we rate it as leans Democratic.

Let’s assume that, at the dawn of the 113th Congress in 2013, all 67 sitting senators not up for reelection this year — 30 Democrats, 37 Republicans — return to serve next year (no departures for the Cabinet, the Court or the Great Beyond). Next, let’s also assume that the 16 races we currently favor Democrats to win go to the Blue column, and the nine races where GOP are favored go to the Red column. Note that we have long flipped Nebraska and North Dakota from Democratic control to Republican control; former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey’s return to Nebraska hasn’t moved us a bit. Note also, as we said above, we are assuming that Maine elects King, who in effect becomes an Independent Democrat akin to Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman or Vermont’s Bernie Sanders. Further, our analysis has Democrats holding seats that are actually or potentially competitive, such as Ohio, Michigan and Hawaii. Finally, we presume that Democrats don’t score surprising upsets in places like Arizona and Indiana.

With those assumptions in place, the Senate is tied exactly 46 to 46, with eight toss up races to decide whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) continues to lead the chamber, or whether Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) takes over.

Obviously, if these races split four to four, the vice president will break the tie in a 50-50 Senate so long as our assumptions are correct. Thus, the race for partisan control of the Senate is agonizingly tight.

The seat currently rated as a toss up that is likeliest to change hands is Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D) looks like a slight underdog against Rep. Denny Rehberg (R). Of the eight toss up Senate races, Montana’s is one of two that will be fought in a traditional Red State.

The toss up seat likeliest to go Democratic is New Mexico. The Land of Enchantment is heavily Democratic territory these days, and this one wouldn’t even be on the radar had Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) not retired. Granted, Republicans will nominate their strongest candidate, former Rep. Heather Wilson, which gives them a fighting chance.

Pollsters point out incumbent Florida Sen. Bill Nelson’s (D) mediocre approval amongst Democrats. Presumably, Democrats will come home to Nelson next year, which might make him stronger than he appears right now — though the presidential contest will be key in the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, Sen. Scott Brown (R) has had a good couple of months in Massachusetts, and while polls are very mixed, Brown’s blue-collar appeal might be enough against his opponent, Democrat Elizabeth Warren.

Missouri, like Montana, is a Red state with an endangered freshman Democratic senator (Claire McCaskill). Hardly anyone expects Missouri to flip to Obama in 2012, so McCaskill might be out on a limb in Republican territory. The races in Virginia and Nevada might be largely dependent on the presidential race — especially in the Old Dominion — and the key to the Wisconsin race hinges on whether ex-Gov Tommy Thompson (R) can win his party’s nomination. If he makes it to the general election, he would start as the favorite — and given the current state of these toss ups, it’s not a stretch to think that a Thompson victory in Wisconsin could end up giving Republicans their 51st Senate seat.

In most of these places, presidential coattails could be key, and we can’t over-stress the importance of the presidential race on the battle for the Senate. This is a hyper-partisan era, and one effect of party polarization is a reduction in ticket-splitting in years like 2012. A Senate candidate in a competitive race will have difficulty swimming against a strong presidential tide in most of these states. The contests in Hawaii, Nebraska and North Dakota might be more competitive in a midterm year, but Linda Lingle (R-HI), Bob Kerrey (D-NE), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) are trying to survive tidal waves for the other party’s presidential nominee in their states.


http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...rystal+Ball%29

So, will there be a vote on the dream act this year? Before November? It is very important that I know this because then I won't waste time and oppurtonities.

I think it's highly likely there will be a vote of some sort of "DREAM Act related bill" this year. I say around 90%. With Harry Reid saying there will be a vote before November
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012...t-will-give-p/ and Rubio and his cronies coming out with this new "DREAM Act alternative" http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/2...-out-hispanics

Just don't put your hopes on anything becoming law this year, cause it's not going to happen.

Yeah of course there will be a vote. It will be pure politics of course, kind of throwing out a bone..then when it gets shot down, they will blame the republicans and make it a campaign issue.

I think the bigger issue is knowing the composition of congress, will the media or anyone even pick it up.

Since there is no chance of supermajority, if they don't learn to compromise, there will be no dream act any time soon.

It looks like DA is gaining lot of momentum. I am very excited now.

I don't know where you're getting your information and I don't understand how you're jumping to that conclusion. From reading this article, I see absolutely zero hope and even more doom for DA.

Dude, we all know that there's no point of arguing with him.. Lol

Democrats should be adding more seats in the Senate.

I really want him to be right lol. I'm arguing with myself but reality has different ideas.