Who Will Immigration Reform Help More? Republicans or Democrats?

Who Will Immigration Reform Help More? Republicans or Democrats?
—By Kevin Drum| Sat Apr. 20, 2013 5:54 PM PDT
10

The other day I was idly wondering whether immigration reform would be better for Republicans or Democrats. Politically, it's a zero-sum game, so it can't be both. And if, in the end, supporting immigration reform doesn't improve GOP electoral prospects, why should they bother supporting it?

Today, Andrew Gelman points to a piece written a couple of months ago by Alex Engler that takes a look at just this question. Engler assumed a voter turnout of 42 percent and then examined the 20 congressional districts for each party that were most likely to switch sides based on shifts in the Hispanic vote:

Based on this data, a dramatic shift in Hispanic support toward Democrats would have yielded startlingly small gains in the House. Under the 42 percent Hispanic voting scenario, a 10 percentage point shift toward Democrats would net only one additional seat....Conversely, shifts away from Democrats by Hispanics could be devastating. Under the 42 percent scenario....a 10 percentage point shift to the right would have handed Republicans 12 seats.

The basic insight here is that Democrats already get such a high percentage of the Hispanic vote that another few points wouldn't do them much good. But just the opposite is true for Republicans. The chart on the right shows this graphically. The area outlined in yellow represents congressional districts that are (a) heavily Hispanic and (b) in play. There are only a few currently in Republican hands, so even if immigration reform helps Democrats, it won't do them much good. But there are about 20 currently in Democratic hands. If depriving Democrats of immigration reform as an issue hurts them, Republicans could make significant gains.

This doesn't answer the question of which party immigration reform is likely to help. What it does say is that it's a no-lose proposition for Republicans. Even if it turns out to help Democrats more, Republicans aren't likely to suffer much because of it.

Of course, as Engler points out, the fact that immigration reform is likely to help the Republican Party doesn't mean that it's likely to help very many individual Republicans:

Most incumbent Republicans will not have a strong incentive to vote for an immigration bill containing a path to citizenship if a significant Hispanic population appears to be lacking in their districts. In fact, many conservatives may be far more concerned about primary challengers than Hispanic backlash.

On the other hand, the Republican Party as a whole has a tremendous opportunity to turn districts in their favor. If they can redefine themselves to the Hispanic population, starting with comprehensive immigration reform, they will be doing more than pouring water on the DCCC’s gunpowder—they will be stealing it for themselves.

This suggests that GOP party leaders probably should push hard to get Republican support for immigration reform. It also means that if they don't push hard, it's pretty likely to fail. It's an interesting analysis.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dru...s-or-democrats

Republicans.

The majority of Hispanics like Democrats because Democrats are in "favor" of immigrants. Once people get a legal status and immigration is no longer an issue, and everyone starts working, paying taxes, a lot of them will switch over to Republicans.

Hell, if I was a USC and immigration wasn't an issue for anyone, I might have voted for Romney. LOL.

Obama is not doing too good on the economics side.

I don't care for neither. They are all talk and no action. What gets me is that they talk about how the president is responsible for every little thing. They all take advantage of people that don't have a clue about how the government works.

Immigration reform is definitely a huge win for republicans if it passes.. In the recent election I myself got over 15 people to vote Obama and these are people who were not going to vote at all.. And then you have the others that I might of swayed over to vote for Obama.. Would I have done that if Romney wasn't so against immigrants? No way.. So I might not be able to vote but I sure am good at getting those who don't vote to get out there and vote to help me out.. Shit, when I become a citizen I might vote republican.. It all depends who's going to lower my taxes and who seems to be a better person for the country.. Obama is one of my favorite presidents because he's taking up issues that others are too damn scared to.. He's a brilliant guy and I believe he is very fit to run the country.. I do think Romney would of done a better job with the defecit but would of messed up a lot of other things in the process.. You know what republican I like? Rand Paul.. Look him up.. If I could vote by the time he's running, he has my vote.

Both parties.

Yeah Rand Paul is doing some good talking right now and getting people convinced. One of my favorite things he have said is he will not support countries that burn the American flag. I truly believe in that and I believe the US should stop helping countries overall, the US needs to fix the problems here before it jumps to help others.

hmmm 80% of illegal aliens are Mexicans, and Mexicans are conservative as hell. I can';t believe it took the republicans so long to realize this, you offer them a path for legalization and bam, they are yours.

You dont tell them to self deport. The most important thing hispanic people care is an immigration reform. whoever passes that or takes the credit is who the hispanic people will favor

Both parties would benefit. Republicans have more to loose if it fails.

Myself and many others including The Corporation Of The United States Of America.

It helps Republicans. If CIR is passed it takes immigration out of the picture and lets minorities vote based on religion, values etc. Most Hispanics are religious and anti abortion.

I cant ever be a republican because I'm pro choice, anti guns, strongly believe in the separation of church and state and believe government has a fair roll to play. Only areas I'm conservative is in capital punishment and free enterprise. I do not believe in trickle up economics, that kills any chance of me being a Democrat. More of a independent leaning left.