'Not much headway': Talks flounder as shutdown enters third week - Page 8

Originally Posted by catportal

Let me explain the political meta for everyone.
Right now, Dems have slight advantage - Trump is in too deep to not get wall at this point.
However, Dems can’t be the one to bring up DACA because then the argument is Dems are keeping the gov closed for illegals.

Inflection point 1, Jan 11 - supposed day when Supreme Court will decide whether they will hear the DACA case or not.

If NO, Dems have clear advantage because DACA is deaf to permanent and the only way Trump gets wall is with Amnesty
If YES, Trump gains slight lead, but not enough for Dems to back down.

At this point Trump will want to end Shutdown and get as much as he can, depends on how long the Dems will hold out for but gov employees will start quitting jobs without $. Trump will push this advantage claiming DACA will be be gone.

Inflection point 2 Supreme Court Decision on DACA

If DACA remains, Dems back to large advantage
If DACA is done, Trump gainsnhuge advantage and will want severe 4 pillers and wall for limited DACA

Likely outcome is either Dems get really good deal and take it or they continue to stall until 2020. I don’t think Dems will take a bad deal even if it means DACA deportations start. Likely Trump has to cave before that where everyone gets funding til sept except DHS —- waiting on Supreme Court decision.

My prediction - shutdown ends, no wall, no daca deal until Supreme Court decision, then stall from Dems til 2020 some deportations will start, likely another shutdown in Sept 2019.

Originally Posted by always_learner11

The ninth circuit said Trump can cancel DACA, but that he cancelled DACA incorrectly.

“To be clear: we do not hold that DACA could not be rescinded as an exercise of Executive Branch discretion,” Judge Kim McLane Wardlaw said in the opinion. “We hold only that here, where the Executive did not make a discretionary choice to end DACA — but rather acted based on an erroneous view of what the law required — the rescission was arbitrary and capricious under settled law.”

If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, I'm not sure that means Trump can't cancel DACA. I think it means Trump has to give a different reason for cancelling it before he is able to cancel it.

Whatever the Supreme Court decides, DACA would be dead, no?

Then again, if this is true, why does Trump keep saying that if the SC rules against him, that the case would give him more executive power?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.6edd071a007d

Originally Posted by eva02

Cause he’s a moron.

Simply, trump and his dhs could have issued a new order months ago ending daca correctly.

They haven’t done so