Immigration reform to get a quiet kickoff

Not a positive article
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,3979385.story

The article states that next week's meeting at the White House will be small and private.
It also says that the CIR will be challenged by some 40 House Democrats in moderate or conservative (swing) districts.
The passage of the CIR will be extremely difficult if no Republicans and some 40 Democrats do not support it, but I'm not sure whether no House Republicans or all those about 40 House Democrats will vote against the CIR. The article does not mention anything about House Republicans or the Senate.


Also, it predicts the most likely time for the passage of a bill that contains a passage to citizenship will be 2011, the presidential election year or the year after the 2010 mid-term election.

In other words, the members of the Congress are afraid of political risks they need to take to pass the CIR, which everyone has expected.

Damn, this is bullshit.....congress is like delay, delay, and delay..because the election, economic, and after 2010 election, they will come up something excuse to delay CIR again. since 2001, they haven't done anything yet. believe me. finally nothing happen again......Like the immigration meeting, and they keep delay until june 25

It's now or never because they will come up with another excuse in 2011 not to pass it.

Seems like they believe the senate is not the problem.

We are in a difficult position.

Senate:
We have almost 60 votes in the Senate, but it really depends on the content of the CIR. The details of the CIR will determine how many Democratic senators will oppose and how many Republican senators will support the bill. In other words, the fate of the CIR in the Senate depends on the CIR itself.

House of Representatives:
One problem is the so-called "Blue Dog" Democrats. There are 52 Blue Dog Democrats. (those 40 or something Democrats mentioned in the article)
They swing... They can be a big problem. Another problem is that there are about 11 less House Republicans who would support the CIR than there were. Some predict we have about 200 votes right now. That means we need to get about 18 or more votes before the CIR gets to the floor in the House.

So, if we really want to see the CIR pass this year, there are several things we need.

1. the active role and support of the White House
2. some compromises that can get support from Republicans in both the Senate and the House.
3. support from some of those "Blue Dog" Democrats
4. time (The health care reform bill is taking more time than expected. The energy bill must be passed as well.)

Even the CIR bill is prefect, i think there still have some senators/ the house are not going to interest it, Like Tom Tacarado(maybe spell it wrong), beacuase they are discrminate illegal immigrants.

If all else fails, then immigrants can boycott the Dems to send a message, in addition to the GOP, which wouldn't be a surprise.

But it's not going to fail. I think Obama and the Democratic leadership knows that it is too important of an issue to half-a** or push to the side.

So we have no hope this year? I am so confused. GOd I don't want to go to Canadia or Australia.

We do have hope.
I think it is the best time for the CIR or Dream Act.
Although the economic environment is terrible right now, there has not been or will not be any better chance/time any way.

It is almost clear that the economy will be much better in 2010 or 2011 than it is right now, but there is no guarantee that the Democratic Party will gain more seats in the mid-term election next year. In fact, it is more likely for the Democratic Party to lose some of its seats in the Congress (I don't think it will lose the majority position in either chamber, though.)

In other words, it's either the economic environment or the political environment that makes the CIR difficult to pass. A bad economic environment is better than a bad political environment.

The critical point here is that we need someone with a lot of political influence and power who can take advantage of this political environment. That is President Obama, but it seems like the White House is reluctant because of the lack of support for the CIR from the Congress and the public. He or the White House must realize that it is President Obama who must lead the way.

well if this doesnt get done by the time i get my Bachelor's im out.

like seriously. im sure we can find good job in our countries with an education from the US.

my plan is to go back to my country teach at a university. it might not be the same as here but atleast i will have my stuff and can do what i want and from there you can just apply to canada or other places. I know we all love this country but if they are not doing something to help us then lets just leave and help another country prosper.

obviously this country still has no realized that immigrants helped this country become the success it is.


come on uncover your eyes and see that we are a great contribution

Not so positive = reality

As I said in another thread, I don't think the bill can be very comprehensive. It will probably start out big, then get scaled back so it can pass; similar to what has happened with a lot of larger bills this year.

politicians = no heavy lifting

I think we feel the pain of letting the DA get engulfed by CIR. Oh well.