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DAP Forums > DREAM Act > The Lounge

Nate Silver's predictions vs. the outcome

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#1
11-07-2012, 05:48 PM
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As many of you know about Silver's incredible blog. This picture compares just how accurate his predictions were this year.

Math and statistics, who knew?
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#2
11-07-2012, 07:07 PM
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This guy is amazing. He called everything with accuracy.
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#3
11-07-2012, 07:22 PM
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wow! i thought he would miss at least one state
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#4
11-07-2012, 08:09 PM
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Silver is amazing. Silver will become a major source for projections, if he hasn't already.
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#5
11-07-2012, 08:46 PM
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did you just say "Math and Statistics, who knew?"

lmao. Hes always been a good statistician. But also, realize that models can be close, distant or completely wrong. Theyre adjusted every time.
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#6
11-07-2012, 10:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDxOD View Post
did you just say "Math and Statistics, who knew?"

lmao. Hes always been a good statistician. But also, realize that models can be close, distant or completely wrong. Theyre adjusted every time.
It was in reference to the GOP's lack of arithmetic skills. Case in point, Karl Rove when he started to rant on Fox News yesterday about how Fox should not have called the race so early while his own pundits said otherwise.
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#7
11-07-2012, 10:20 PM
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I actually had his website open while NBC was on during the announcement of numbers. When NH and WI was called leaning for Obama I knew he had it right and my fears faded after that.
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#8
11-07-2012, 10:21 PM
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Glad empiricism triumphed over wishful thinking.
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#9
11-07-2012, 10:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDxOD View Post
did you just say "Math and Statistics, who knew?"

lmao. Hes always been a good statistician. But also, realize that models can be close, distant or completely wrong. Theyre adjusted every time.
Yeaah but there are these people:

Quote:
Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.
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#10
11-08-2012, 02:33 AM
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I didnt realize he was being sarcastic about it...i dont have an e-sarcasm monitor...but basically my point is that yes, all polls, models and data analysis run by reputable sources (or people with credentials) are based on math and stats.
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