Elections update

Hopefully many of you have been following the elections closely so far. There is a growing concern for us in the Republican nomination process.

The two candidates that we support, McCain and Giuliani have run into serious cash flow problems. Bottom line, they have a shortage of cash and not enough to run an extensive campaign. It was bad enough that both candidates had to leave Florida for a two days to hold fundraisers in New York. Senior campaign aides in Giuliani's camp are forgoing their salaries. McCain has had to reduce his advertisements in Florida to retain some money for Super Tuesday states.

Some good news is that Fred Thompson dropped out and Huckabee is also severely short on cash. Huckabee had to ground his media plane which drastically undermines his media exposure because Huckabee very heavily depends on free media coverage on that plane. Huckabee has also publicly said that he can't wage an extensive campaign because he "can't write a big check".

Now Fred Thompson's supporters are likely to scatter into all three of the leading candidates but Romney would get the largest share because of his relatively conservative social policies as compared to Giuliani and McCain.

Given the money issues, the contest, while still muddled, has come down to Giuliani, McCain and Romney with Florida serving as the gatekeeper for front runner status. Huckabee will lose Florida and unless he gets a mega infusion of cash, he can't extensively campaign in the Bible Belt states that vote on Super Tuesday. If he can't get media exposure, it is doubtful of whether he can win the southern states on Feb. 5.

I think its safe to say that Huckabee won't be getting the nomination. Now Giuliani has to win Florida, if not, he's done. But recently Giuliani's lead has slipped significantly and he is looking increasingly vulnerable on a number of fronts. I am inclined to say that Giuliani won't win Florida. McCain needs to win Florida to take the lead in number of delegates and get a mega infusion of cash, which always happens quickly when a front runner emerges.

The problem for us is that Romney has no cash flow problems. Romney is the co-founder of Bain Capital, (huge private equity firm) and is reportedly worth $200 million - $250 million. So Romney has no problem dipping into the honey pot to keep his campaign going. So even if Romney doesn't win Florida, he has money to keep campaigning for Super Tuesday delegates which he will win given that Thompson has dropped out and that Huckabee, Romney's much more conservative rival, will get less media exposure.

So lets pray that McCain can win Florida. If not, then Romney will become front runner. The worst thing that can happen is that if Romney wins the nomination just because he was the richest out of all the other candidates.

On another note, the Democrats are loaded so none of them have any cash flow problems and are willing to stay in it. But that race has come down to Obama/Clinton. Edwards is conducting a noble but ultimately futile campaign.

I think they should just duel for the nomination.

The new campaign funds information should be coming out soon so we'll see then but at the end of September Romney had around 9 million to Rudy's 16. Obviously he can dip into his own pockets but I don't know how willing he is to do that. He essentially wasted much of his money running all the campaigns up to now.

It's really too bad that Rudy hasn't quit because I think nearly all his votes and money would go to McCain.

I think McCain will prevail simply due to the huge number of delegates in the big states where Republicans are more moderate.

Romney's deep pockets won't earn him the nomination. Just ask Howard Dean.

lol....I remember that one.

Romney is just going to squander his fortune with nothing to show for it in the end. The guy is unelectable in the general election IF he even gets that far. Romney being president doesn't keep me up at night. Even if pigs fly and he somehow wins. That douche has no balls. He won't do a damn thing.

It's people like him who I dislike the most in public office. His father was a wealthy business man, became governor of my state, ran for president in 1968 losing the republican nomination to Nixon.

My question is what do men like Romney, George Bush, and their likes know ANYTHING about the average life of an American??

They come from such sheltered, affluent, and stable lives. They will never worry about losing their homes cuz they can't pay the mortgage, they will never worry about lacking healthcare, they will never worry about losing their jobs (although GWB might never get hired after he leaves office cuz everyone knows he's incompetent), they will never experience what the average American has to live through.

If they never experienced what the average American has to live through, how the hell do they intend on making the best choices for the average American?! Candidates like Romney need to get off the presidential race cuz this country is not meant to be run by men so far removed from the people of this country.

McCain raised $7 million so far this month (and that probably accounts for their total cash reserves since he was broke before then), but he has $3 million dollars of debt to pay off. They could decide to pay off the debt or bet it all on the upcoming contests.

Basically, he needs to secure frontrunner status to continue the current rate of fundraising (a Florida win would help that but more importantly, a huge gain on Super Tuesday). However, Super Tuesday is very expensive to compete in. McCain already has good name identification and media exposure that could help him on Super Tuesday, but a lack of funds would hurt his get out the vote/advertising efforts.

McCain could also accept public matching funds, but we don't know how much he has raised is specifically for the primary (which the government would match). Public matching funds does have strings attached, but I'm not familiar what those strings are.