EAD Renewal Prediction

So, being an engineer I decided to look further into the information provided by the uscis website for the Nebraska Service center.

According to the previous month, as of April 30th they were taking 3.5 months for renewal (updated june 14th).

According to the newest information, as of May 31st last application approved was those ACCEPTED by February 4th. (updated july14).

Therefore my prediction is below.

Application Accepted by Approved by Approval Duration

January 15th April 30th 3.5 months

February 4th May 31st 4 months

March 3rd June 30th 4 months

April 4th July 31st 4 months

May 5th August 31st 4 months


Note that they don't update their website until the 15th of the following month. So for example, if you apply on March 21st and your application was accepted on the 25th then most likely you should be approved by July 31st. However, this info will not be posted on their website until August 14th.

This are ball park figures and do not reflect outliers. Please comment.

How did u arrive at 4 months?

May 31st - February 4th = 117 days or 3 months and 27 day so I rounded to 4 months.

May 31st and February 4th is information provided on the USCIS processing time website.

The outliers are the cases in which have taken many months to even get a biometrics letter. We need more data to see how many fractions of a month can be added for this month. Hopefully not by much. So hopefully your application chessmaster will be approved by the end of this month, and so is mine since we share the same expiration date.

I could be the nate silver or daca. 😎

I believe they are scrunitizing all our apps because they dont have many and they want to show the Reps they are being very careful but once they get shitloads of apps in sept ,oct and nov they are going to rush it like they always do.

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fi...ort%202016.pdf

if you read this, which was released end of last month, it says the renewal has declined, but they do expect it to increase again, which makes no sense for them to stall the process.....

Back in 2014 when most of us were applying for our 1st renewal the situation was similar. A lot of us on this board were on the September and October EAD expiration timeline. And the renewals came in waves. There would be a bunch of renewals one week and just a few the next week. I am hopeful that this will be the scenario this time around too. My prediction is that some of you guys whose DACA are expiring in August may get your renewals toward the end of this month. My DACA expires in September so realistically I'm not expecting to hear anything till mid to late August. It's a maddening experience to go through this but we have no choice. It's clear that they are processing cases since they updated their processing timeline. I think they're probably receiving a lot of 2nd renewal requests (like my case) and I'm hoping they're going to approve a bunch of people soon.

Im not saying this is the reason but last time they renewed some people who had commited misdemeanors and felonies, Republicans blasted them for that so maybe uscis is doing it slow to say we're doing our job. My guess.

where is the source of all this data?

Can you share a google sheets with this data?

What kind of engineer are you?