Dream Act Prediction from Mark Silverman

Our one and only Mark silverman~~ I got his email about this. Looks like we made progress obviously... but we still have to work our butt off!

[famvisa dreamact activists] ANALYSIS OF SENATE ELECTION RESULTS IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL ENACTMENT OF DREAM ACT AND CIR (COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM)

Date: 2008-11-12
Sender: Mark Silverman

ANALYSIS OF 2008 SENATE ELECTION RESULTS ON SUPPORT FOR

COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM (CIR) AND THE DREAM ACT

By Mark Silverman, Immigrant Legal Resource Center, November 12, 2008

DREAM ACT

Dear friends,

The guestimate in our analysis is that there may now be 56-59 votes for the DREAM Act – an increase in 1-3 votes. The range, based on worst and best results, would be 54 to 61 votes – which be -1 (worst) to +6 (best). We are much closer to the 60 votes needed to defeat a filibuster in the Senate and pass the DREAM Act. This would suggest that the DREAM Act should be a high priority in 2010 for immigrant-based groups, and all supporting sensible immigration reform and better access to higher education for students. In a subsequent analysis, we will discuss which Senators who voted “No” in 2007 are possible “Yes” votes on the DREAM ACT, especially with vigorous advocacy. For example, two Democratic Senators who voted against the DREAM Act (Pryor of Arkansas and Baucus of Montana) just won reelection easily, and therefore are not taking on much political risk if they now vote “Yes”.


http://www.ilrc.org/listserv_output.php?n_id=276

Sorry, couldn't paste the chart here. Press the oink and look at the scenario he laid out, pretty cool.

a high priority for 2010 ???

I think this analysis is DEAD WRONG I think McCain will come around and the Georgia seat looks kinda reliable to me.


Jim Martin position on immigration

1.First, we need to secure our borders.

2.Second, we need to crack down on employers who hire undocumented immigrants.

3.It is simply not realistic to deport the reported 12 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States. This country has a long and proud history of welcoming newcomers, whether they are fleeing persecution and oppression, war and civil strife, or poverty and a lack of opportunity. We can find a balance between honoring that history and protecting the social and economic well-being of our country.

Part of that balance involves giving people who have lived in our country for a number of years, who have a clean record, and who have basic English skills, the chance to gain lawful status and become full members of our society. They should pay a fine and back taxes, and be allowed the opportunity to get in line for legalized status.

http://www.martinforsenate.com/issue...form.html#more

This don't seem like someone to me who would vote against the DREAM Act.

^ wow...

If DREAM comes up again and gets beaten, i think thats it for me...

No license/transportation and school is getting unaffordable...man i wish i lived in Cali.

let's not even think about that... gives me the chills.

DREAM must come up for a vote next year. It just has to. I'm tired of waiting. Besides, the midterm elections might hurt our chances if it were delayed until 2010.

ECW, I too think that McCain might turn around, but I think they are simply trying to give a conservative estimate. They did have McCain as a "yea" in their best case scenario. It's really hard to predict what McCain will do next (as we saw during the presidential campaign). Let's just hope that he'll do the right thing next time.

2010...OH NOES, I can't wait that long. I'm having hard time waiting for 2009, haha.

ya lets not think about that just yet lol. Too depressing.

as for cali, things are faarrrr in most places in cali. Car is a must... unless u are in a city.

Conservatives are reworking and re-generating their party platforms. In the 2006 elections republicans took a big hit in 2008 they took an even bigger hit, republicans have to more toward the middle to gain their party momentum back, maybe voting "yes" on Dream will be good for the republican party.

Did he mean 2009? Btw, johans will probably vote no on dream act. Mark silvaman doesn't know what he's talking about.