Boehner Promises House Won’t Pass Senate’s Immigration Bill - Page 3

This is totally fine, remember the GOP is already screwed. This is just their last chance at blocking Obama, like they have in his past presidency. After this, if nothing is done, they will suffer. More.

There's no need to panic. I spent a good chunk of time yesterday trying to figure this out and Boehner's salvo looks to me directed not at the Senate bill -which he will if push comes to shove pass- but to House Democrats.

The problem lies in the negotiating dynamic regarding the House bill.

Right now the bill is stuck over the dispute over whether newly legalized immigrants should buy their insurance or not. Both sides agree they shouldn't be covered by Obamacare mind you.

But Republicans insist that they should buy their insurance, while Democrats won't agree to this. Why does this happen?

Well, it could be a poison pill. With many immigrants being poor, having to buy insurance might mean they might not be able to afford it at some point and thus violate the terms of their provisional status and thus run the risk of being deported. It's also a matter of politics; Republicans probably don't want to support anything that's associated with Obamacare and insisting that immigrants buy their own insurance means that they will never become part of the constituency that supports Obamacare.

The problem now is how each side enforces its will. The way to understand that is by understanding what leverage they got and in order to understand what leverage they got, you need to see what each side's best alternative to a compromise is.

From the Democratic side, accepting the Republican demand for immigrants to buy insurance is a non-starter. It doesn't satisfy their constituencies and if push comes to shove, they probably prefer not having a legislation than having a legislation with that measure on; if Republicans insist on that, the Democrats can legitimately take the fight to the electorate during the next election cycles.

From the Democratic side, another question is far more interesting. Do they sign off on the House compromise bill? The answer is no, if the Senate bill can get an up or down vote in the House. For the Democrats to sign on the compromise bill, they have to know that Republicans won't allow vote on the Senate bill.

That brings us to House Republicans. If House Republicans had the votes to pass the bill with the insurance provisions, they wouldn't need to bargain with the Democrats. In all likelihood, they don't have the votes. They also probably understand that the Dems won't budge on this, so they know they have to drop that demand sooner or later.

Republicans have a different calculation however. The right wing of their caucus won't vote for any CIR bill. Their center of their caucus however faces the option of either supporting the House version of CIR or allowing the Senate bill to come in an up or down vote. Under the first scenario, they put their weight behind a CIR that's in terms of substantial policy is further to the right than the Senate bill, but face a potential political cost in the form of weakening their right flank, an event which might bring about a primary challenge for them. In the latter scenario, they allow Boehner to bring the Senate bill for a vote, but they don't vote for it albeit allowing it to pass with Dem votes and moderate Republicans. That way, they have plausible deniability in regards to a challenge from the right, while allowing the bill -which is crucial to the future of the Republican party- to pass.

I think that all things being equal, most Republican House members have reached the conclusion that passing CIR is politically desireable. So all things being equal, they will give Boehner their tacit support to pass the bill.

If however, they want to move the bill further to the right, they will want the House version to be voted instead.

The problem is that if House Democrats know that Republicans will prefer the Senate version than no bill at all, then they won't compromise either. And that stance will become more apparent once Republicans drop their demand for mandatory buying of insurance by immigrants.

So, what Republicans needed to do is to credibly bluff that if the House Dems don't compromise on the bill, they will torpedo the Senate bill.

Whether the Senate Dems bite or not, it's a guess. I think they will, but if they have strong stomachs, they might call Boehner's bluff and take their chances that Boehner will in fact allow the Senate bill.

So, that's what I think Boehner's move was aiming to do. To try forcing the House Democrats to accept the House bill rather than wait for the Senate bill.

The fact remains that CIR is more alive than ever. The only question is how the final legislation is going to look.

I don't find it controversial at all to expect fully capable adults of working age to provide their self-purchased health insurance. When you immigrate as an adult you are allowed in on the condition that you won't become a public charge, so what's the problem?

Poor immigrant families whose children are U.S. citizens automatically qualify for taxpayer-funded Medicaid or CHIP or DSHS for the children depending on the state in which they live. That leaves the parents to pay for their own health expenses, isn't this what responsible people do?

Also, being a responsible adult means that you need to plan your family size so that you can provide for them the highest-quality of life possible and affording health coverage is part of that. Who among us is planning on having 3 or 4 children without a decent income that can afford health insurance? It does come back to personal responsibility.

As far as the House moving legislation along, we are running out of time and I wonder if Napolitano should scare them by issuing a registration order in anticipation of the new changes in immigration law, ha! I do agree that the momentum is on our side, but then, it needs to be enacted by the end of June, otherwise we move into the beginning of the next election cycle frenzy.

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/201...form-dossiers/

This worries me :0