The 2008 senate elections thread - Page 7

alex1234 · 12:47 AM

Tom Udall on Immigration:

*Voted NO on building a fence along the Mexican border

*Voted NO on reporting illegal aliens who receive hospital treatment.

*Voted YES on extending Immigrant Residency rules.

*Rated 0% by (un)FAIR, indicating a voting record loosening immigration.

*Rated 8% by USBC, indicating "an open-border stance."

Udall scores 8% by USBC on immigration issues OnTheIssues.org interprets the 2005-2006 USBC scores as follows:

0%-30%: open-border stance (approx. 197 members)
30%-70%: mixed record on open borders (approx. 70 members)
70%-100%: sealed-border stance (approx. 202 members)

Youguysareawesome · 04-14-2008, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alex1234

AK-Sen poll: Begich and Stevens deadlocked

Rasmussen. 4/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%

Stevens (R) 46
Begich (D) 45

Looks like Stevens is in deep shit.

NM-Sen: Huge lead's getting huger

Rasmussen. 4/8. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (2/17-18 results)

Wilson (R) 36 (43)
Udall (D) 56 (50)

Pearce (R) 40 (43)
Udall (D) 54 (50)

This is great Udall would replace Domenici who voted against us.

Stevens voted against DREAM

Yea for Udall, I think Wilson might also be for DREAM as well but she might flake on us like Domenici (I swear he made up that story about his mom being a DREAMer) so I would rather have Udall win.

alex1234 · 02:07 AM

alright here are some latest polls on two senate races which are surprisingly close.

Rasmussen

Texas

Cornyn: 47%

Noriega: 43%

Now I know Texas has not elected a democratic senator since the 80s, but this is really close, we are almost halfway through the year and if Noriega keeps it up, this could be a dead heat. The only problem Noriega is facing is MONEY, Noriega trails Cornyn by millions in fundrasing.

North Carolina

Rasmussen

Dole: 47%

Hagan: 48%

This is the first time two women are going to compete in NC for a senate seat. A month a go Hagan was trailing Dole by 26 points and now shes even leading even though is just by one percent. The only issue people feel comfortable with Dole is on immigration ( i guess if you are racist in NC you get votes anyway) Other than that the people in NC are leaning towards Hagen on the economy issue and the war in Iraq. If Dole the witch is planning to run her re-election on the immigration issue, which i hope she does, she's going to get beaten badly. Many people are comparing this race to the one in Virgina in 2006 when Jim Webb surprisingly beat George Macaca Allen.

Other Races:

Oregon:

Gordon Smith: 45%

Jeff Merkley: 42%

Youguysareawesome · 11:34 PM

I love that Liddy Dole and Cornyn are getting real competition. I love you Texas!
This poll will hopefully help Noreiga with fundraising. If you live in Texas encourage your citizen relatives and friends to donate to his campaign.

Rasmussen tends to error on the conservative side so these numbers are looking really good for the democrats.

I know there are members with citizen family members in Oregon. Get them registered to vote!

gsb89 · 05-13-2008, 12:55 AM

OHh wow this is really great news.. c'mon ppl we have to do something to help these ppl out..

Its really important for D's to get elected in this upcoming elections.. we would benefit greatly.. even more so than if we get a Democratic president..

alex1234 · 05-13-2008, 02:13 AM

Here's Noriega's site http://www.ricknoriega.com/

contribute and let's get Cornyn out of office.

gsb89 · 05-13-2008, 08:56 PM

heheh so last night i got four of my cousins who live in Texas to register to vote.. and ofcourse im making their asses vote for Noriega..

alex1234 · 05-13-2008, 10:18 PM

great ^

A separate survey of 600 Texan voters by the Democratic-leaning Daily Kos Web site gave Cornyn a 48-to-44 percent advantage, again with a four-point margin of error.

Despite the polls, Cornyn enjoys one enormous advantage over Noriega: the size of his campaign fund. At the end of March, the most recent reporting period, Cornyn had $8.7 million in cash on hand. Noriega had just less than $330,000.

Noriega said his campaign is "an insurgent grassroots" that will pick up steam with contributions over the Internet. He has hired the Internet marketing firm that helped Senator James Webb, a Democrat of Virginia, win his seat in 2006. Webb's victory over Republican incumbent George Allen was critical in shifting the Senate to Democratic control.

alex1234 · 05-19-2008, 04:22 PM

...From DK

Quote:

The Senate picture, by the numbers

by kos

Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:35:17 AM PDT

The list below ranks this year's top Senate races not by my belief in likely success, but by what the latest batch of polling tells us:
1.) Virginia (R-open): Rasmussen, 5/8:

Gilmore (R) 37
Warner (D) 55

Still the DSCC's best recruiting success, giving us as close to a sure thing in the Senate this fall.

2.) New Mexico (R-open): Rasmussen, 5/14:

Pearce (R) 37
Udall (D) 55

Wilson (R) 36
Udall (D) 57

The Udall-Wilson numbers look even better than the Gilmore-Warner numbers above, but Pearce is likely to win the Republican primary so this race gets slotted second. And if my Unified Theory of Primaries holds (the winning primary candidate closes the gap against a foe with a cleared primary field), then this will ultimately be a tighter race. Of course, when you have an 18-point advantage, "tighter" is relative.

3.) New Hampshire (R-Sununu): Rasmussen, 4/30:

Sununu (R) 43
Shaheen (D) 51

The first two races spoil us, making a "mere" 8-point lead against an incumbent look anemic. Well, it's not. Still, we are out of "sure thing" territory.

4.) Alaska (R-Stevens): Research 2000, 4/12-14:

Stevens (R) 43
Begich (D) 48

Alaska number four on the list? Well, a Rasmussen poll conducted at the same time gave Begich a 2-point lead, suggesting that the long-time Senate institution, "Tubes" Stevens, is truly running out of steam. In reality, Colorado below is probably a stronger bet than Alaska, but that's not to diss our chances in this state. Alaska's chances of going Blue this year are real.

5.) Colorado (R-Open): Rasmussen, 4/16:

Schaffer (R) 43
Udall (D) 45

New polling on this race would likely show a bigger Udall lead. Schaffer has been hit with connections to Abramoff and had a widely reported and ridiculously embarrassing moment when a mountain identified in one of his ads as Colorado's Pikes Peak turned out to actually be Alaska's Mt. McKinley.

6.) North Carolina (R-Dole): Rasmussen 5/8:
Dole (R) 47
Hagan (D) 48

Fresh off her primary boost, Dems have a solid candidate in Hagan, and Republicans are stuck with that "R" next to their names. I would slot this race below Minnesota if I was ranking by chance of success, but this one is at worst a pure toss-up.

7.) Texas (R-Cornyn): Research 2000 5/5-7:

Cornyn (R) 48
Noriega (D) 44

These shocking results confirmed a previous Rasmussen poll also showing a mere 4-point deficit. Noriega's problem is money -- he's been less than adept at raising it and Cornyn has lots. And Texas is an expensive state. If Noriega can overcome the money problems, it's clear there's a yearning for change in the Lone Star State that he can tap into.

8.) Oregon (R-Smith): Rasmussen 5/7:

Smith (R) 45
Merkley (D) 42

Smith (R) 47
Novick (D) 41

Will whoever wins the Democratic primary get a primary boost against Smith? Either way, this race is starting to show some sign of life when it once seemed to slip away from contention.

9.) Minnesota (R-Coleman): Star Tribune, 5/12-15:

Coleman (R) 51
Franken (D) 44

Franken is going through a rough spot, having been busted with tens of thousands of dollars in unpaid state taxes from gigs and projects all over the country. He's paid that stuff off, and the question is whether it's merely a blip or a longer-term problem. I'd guess the former.

10.) Mississippi (R-Wicker): Research 2000 12/10-12/7:

Wicker (R) 47
Musgrove (D) 39

Okay, the poll is hopelessly out of date, but I've got my second poll of this race coming out either late this week or next Monday. We can adjust Mississippi's place on this list according to those results. Given the results of last week's House special election, I wouldn't be surprised with some tightening.

11.) Maine (R-Collins): Rasmussen 5/14:

Collins (R) 52
Allen (D) 42

Collins is well liked in the state, but even she's starting to bleed support from huge early leads she previously enjoyed. Bush and his war in Iraq are proving a drag on anything they touch, and Collins remains an enthusiastic supporter of the war in Iraq.

Collins is still over 50, and hence considered safe, but the trendlines aren't looking good for her.

12.) Kentucky (R-McConnell): Research 2000 5/7-9:

McConnell (R) 48
Lunsford (D) 36

McConnell (R) 47
Fischer (D) 35

The Republican Senate minority leader under 50 percent? Oh my! Perhaps it might have something to do with his anemic 48-45 approval rating. McConnell dodged a bullet when the Dems two top choices -- Rep. Ben Chandler (who will win Kentucky's open seat in 2010) and State Auditor Crit Luallen -- passed. But he won't be out of the woods until he can consistently get over that 50 percent hump.

13.) Lousiana (D-Landrieu): Southern Media & Opinion Research 3/26-4/9:

Landrieu (D) 50
Kennedy (R) 38

There's been just a single good poll on this race the entire 2008 calendar year, this one, so we have no proof that this will shape up to be the competitive race the GOP hopes it'll become. With Democrats picking up a House seat two weeks ago in a district Bush won by 19 points in 2004, it seems that even Red-trending Louisiana is in little mood for Republicans. Throw in an energized black electorate with Obama at the top of the ticket, and this becomes an even tougher slog for Republicans.

Kennedy switched parties at the wrong time in history, it would seem, though it's too early to be counting our lucky stars. There's still plenty of time for this to develop into a real race.

14.) Kansas (R-Roberts): Rasmussen 5/3:

Roberts (R) 52
Slattery (D) 40

Really, what the hell is Kansas doing on this list? Well, if these numbers stay static in the next couple of months, then Roberts will be safe. But for a Republican that won with 83% of the vote in 2002, Roberts is not used to being tested, and Slattery hasn't even started campaigning. This is still a likely Republican seat at the moment, but it's far closer than it should, by rights, be. We may have a surprise brewing here.

15.) Nebraska (R-Open): Southern Media & Opinion Research 5/15:

Johanns (R) 55
Kleeb (D) 40

I polled this race last November and Johanns, the wildly popular former governor of the state (who won his last election with 69 percent of the vote) was crushing Kleeb 59-28. This last poll shows that we may have more of a race on our hands. I've got my second Nebraska poll due out late this week, so we'll see if Rasmussen's numbers are confirmed, or if they're too optimistic.

A 15-point deficit is "optimistic"? It's a fantastic result, and one that shows that this race could be truly competitive before all is said and done. And given that Obama trails by only 11 points in the state (compared to 23 points with Clinton), and we have another state were Obama at the top of the ticket gives our Senate candidate a fighting chance.

-------
Here's some context: Look at what Rasmussen said at roughly this point in time two years ago about the races Democrats picked up in 2006:

Minnesota:
Actual: Klobuchar 58, Kennedy 38
Ras, 4/27: Klobuchar 45, Kennedy 43

Missouri:
Actual: McCaskill 50, Talent 47
Ras, 5/8: Talent 43, McCaskill 40

Montana:
Actual: Tester 49, Burns 48
Ras, 5/11: Tester 48, Burns 44

Pennsylvania:
Actual: Casey 59, Santorum 41
Ras, 4/20: Casey 51, Santorum 38

Rhode Island:
Actual: Whitehouse 53, Chafee 47
Ras, 4/26: Chafee 44, Whitehouse 41

Virginia:
Actual: Webb 50, Allen 49
Ras, 4/4: Allen 50, Webb 30

gsb89 · 05-19-2008, 06:33 PM

Thanks for the update Alex.. I like looking at new polls and making my own conclusions..

They need you!

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The 2008 senate elections thread - Page 7